In 2023, 7.2 percent of the population did not have health insurance, CBO estimates. That share is projected to rise to 8.9 percent by 2034 because Medicaid’s continuous eligibility provisions end, enhanced marketplace subsidies expire, and immigration surges.

Enrollment in Medicaid and the Children’s Health Insurance Program (CHIP) is projected to decline significantly, from 92 million in 2023 to 79 million in 2034. Enrollment through marketplaces is projected to reach an all-time high of 23 million people in 2025. Employment-based coverage will continue to be the largest source of health insurance, while enrollment in Medicare will grow significantly, from 60 million in 2023 to 74 million in 2034 as the population ages.