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Voluntary Renewable Energy Certificates (VRECs) Market, currently at USD 1.3 billion is set to triple in volume by 2030

VREC Report

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Forecast focused on the Voluntary Renewable Energy Certificates (VRECs) market, by cCarbon, expects the supply of Voluntary RECs to surpass the Compliance RECs

CUPERTINO, CALIFORNIA, UNITED STATES, February 14, 2024 / -- Voluntary Renewable Energy Certificates (VRECs) are emerging as being a preferred option by corporates to decarbonize their electricity consumption.

This first comprehensive forecast focused on the Voluntary Renewable Energy Certificates (VRECs) market in the United States, by cCarbon, expects the supply of Voluntary RECs to surpass the Compliance RECs for the first time

The report represents a significant milestone in the understanding of VRECs dynamics, offering insights into the market's evolution and future trajectory. With meticulous analysis and robust forecasting methodologies, cCarbon's report aims to provide stakeholders with invaluable strategic guidance.

Supply of Voluntary Renewable Energy Credits is set to triple by 2030. At present, the Voluntary REC market at approximately $1.3 billion, with the 319 million RECs issued.

Key Highlights of the Report:
• Critical Decade Ahead: The next 10 years emerge as the most pivotal period for the VRECs market, shaping the trajectory of the clean power transition in the United States. During this period, strategic decisions and policy actions will profoundly influence the market's evolution and impact.
• Transition to Clean Power: As the clean power transition accelerates, the report emphasizes that the next decade will witness a paradigm shift where clean power becomes the norm. Consequently, the value of the clean power attribute, including VRECs, is expected to undergo transformation, potentially diminishing its significance in the long term.
• Strategic Imperatives: Stakeholders are urged to leverage the insights provided in the report to navigate the evolving landscape of the VRECs market effectively. With the market poised for transformative change, proactive engagement and strategic planning are essential to capitalize on emerging opportunities and mitigate risks.

Commenting on the release, Craig Rocha, North American Lead Analyst, said, "As we enter the most critical decade for the VRECs market, strategic decisions made today by the nexus of clean power generators and corporate buyers of power will shape the future of clean power in the United States. This forecast pulls different regulatory and technological levers to show the possible paths ahead for the VREC market. This is an opportunity with massive scale, but a limited time window. These conditions only enhance the value of forward guidance right now".

Access the full report here:

About cCarbon:
cCarbon (formerly California Carbon) is a division of cKinetics and part of its range of solutions. cCarbon delivers cutting-edge insights and decision support for the sustainability transition, carbon markets, and environmental finance. cCarbon empowers stakeholders to identify the greatest opportunities in the transition to a low-carbon economy. More at

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1. Executive Summary
1.1 The Rise of VRECs
1.2 Comparing Voluntary Markets of VCM, Voluntary Renewable and Unbundled VREC Supply
1.3 Supply of Voluntary Renewable and unbundled VRECs
1.4 Demand for VRECs
1.5 Manufacturers apparently lead the way for NAR retirements followed by food retailers and technology companies. (Based on a 5% sample disclosed by NAR)
1.6 Prices of VRECs
1.7 Conclusion

2. Introduction to RECs
2.1 Purpose of RECs
2.2 Our terminology for the difference in RECs
2.3 What’s the difference between Compliance and Voluntary RECs?
2.4 Bundled and Unbundled RECs

3. Context for the growth of Voluntary RECs in USA
3.1 Overview
3.2 Voluntary RECs an important source of decarbonizing Corporate Scope 2 emissions
3.3 Corporates have multiple pathways of decarbonizing Scope-2 emissions
3.4 Data shows Unbundled VRECs and PPAs are the by far the most popular tools to use green power
3.5 Growth of the VREC Market
3.6 How are RECs tracked – The Mosaic of REC registries in North America
3.7 Sizing the US VREC Market

4. Regional Analysis
4.1 Regional summary: A tapestry of systems
4.2 The divide between red and blue states
4.3 Texas, ERCOT: The largest source of VRECs
4.4 North American Registry (NAR)
4.5 Other registries

5. Supply Outlook for Voluntary RECs – Strong growth in the coming decade
5.1 Our Modelling approach balances green power production and compliance requirements
5.2 The USA Outlook of VREC Supply: Putting the Pieces together.

6. Demand outlook for Voluntary RECs
6.1 Key Stakeholders of VREC Demand
6.2 Program initiatives: RE100, SBTi, and others
6.3 Corporate profile of VRECs based on Registry Data
6.4 The expected demand decline for V-RECs post 2030

7. Pricing Outlook of Compliance and Voluntary REC
7.1 Voluntary REC Price Outlook
7.2 Analysis of RECs’ open interest and traded volumes – ERCOT has most volume
7.3 Other Compliance REC Prices

8. Synthesis: possible levers and changes to watch out for

9. Annexure
9.1 Data sources for RECs Registry and types of Data available
9.2 USA Electricity Generation and EIA projections

Gabriel Stoltzfus
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