24 July 2026

Compared with May 2026:

• median consumer perceptions of inflation over the past 12 months decreased significantly, as did median expectations for inflation over the next 12 months. Median expectations for inflation three years ahead decreased slightly, while median expectations for inflation five years ahead remained unchanged;
• expectations for nominal income growth over the next 12 months increased, while expectations for spending growth over the next 12 months decreased;
• expectations for economic growth over the next 12 months became less negative, and the expected unemployment rate in 12 months’ time decreased;
• expectations for growth in the price of homes over the next 12 months decreased, while expectations for mortgage interest rates in 12 months’ time increased.

Inflation

In June the median rate of perceived inflation over the previous 12 months decreased to 3.6%, from 4.0% in May. Median expectations for inflation over the next 12 months also decreased, down to 3.0%, from 3.5%, as did expectations for inflation three years ahead, which declined to 2.8%, from 2.9%. Expectations for inflation five years ahead remained unchanged, at 2.4%. Uncertainty about expectations for inflation over the next 12 months decreased for the second consecutive month, but remained higher than the level prevailing before the start of the war in the Middle East. Respondents in lower-income quintiles continued to report higher inflation perceptions and expectations, on average, than those in higher-income quintiles. Younger respondents (aged 18-34) continued to report lower inflation perceptions and expectations than older respondents (aged 35-54 and 55-70).

Income and consumption

Consumers’ expectations for nominal income growth over the next 12 months increased to 1.1%, from 1.0% in May. Meanwhile, perceived nominal spending growth over the previous 12 months decreased to 5.1%, from 5.4% in May. Expected nominal spending growth over the next 12 months decreased to 3.6%, from 3.8% in May, with respondents in the lowest three income quintiles expecting slightly higher spending growth than those in the highest two quintiles.

Economic growth and labour market

Expectations for economic growth over the next 12 months increased to -1.4%, from -1.7% in May. Expectations for the unemployment rate 12 months ahead decreased to 11.2%, from 11.3% in May. As observed in previous months, lower-income households expected the highest unemployment rate 12 months ahead (13.8%), while higher-income households expected the lowest rate (9.7%). Consumers continued to expect the future unemployment rate to be only slightly higher than the perceived current unemployment rate (10.7%), suggesting a broadly stable labour market outlook.

Housing and credit access

In June consumers expected the price of their home to increase by 3.4% over the next 12 months, compared with 3.6% in May. As in previous months, expectations for home price growth over the next 12 months in the lowest income quintile (3.7%) remained higher on average than in the highest quintile (3.2%). Expectations for mortgage interest rates over the next 12 months increased to 5.0%, from 4.9% in May. As in previous months, lower-income households expected the highest mortgage interest rates 12 months ahead (5.8%), while higher-income households expected the lowest rates (4.4%). The net percentage of households reporting a tightening (relative to those reporting an easing) of access to credit over the previous 12 months declined in June, as did the net percentage of households expecting tighter credit conditions (relative to those expecting an easing) over the next 12 months.

The microdata underlying the aggregate results are available in the Data and methodological information section of the Consumer Expectations Survey (CES) web page.

The release of the CES results for July is scheduled for 21 August 2026.

For media queries, please contact: Benoit Deeg, tel.: +49 172 1683704.

Notes