The May 2026 DMP survey was conducted between 8-22 May 2026 and received 2,086 responses.

Firms reported that their realised annual own-price growth was 3.8% in the three months to May, up 0.1 percentage points from the three months to April. The more volatile single-month measure also rose by 0.1 percentage points to 3.9%. Note that the DMP covers own prices from firms across the whole economy, not just consumer-facing firms.

Year-ahead own-price inflation was expected to be 4.0% in the three months to May, 0.2 percentage points higher than firms reported in the three months to April, and 0.6 percentage points higher than in February. The single-month data fell by 0.4 percentage points to 4%. Firms therefore expect their own-price growth to increase by 0.2 percentage points over the next year, from 3.8% to 4.0%, on a three-month basis.

Expectations for year-ahead CPI inflation increased to 3.7% in the three months to May. The corresponding measure for three-years-ahead CPI inflation expectations was 2.8% in the three months to May, which remains unchanged relative to the three months to April. In the single-month data, year-ahead CPI inflation expectations fell by 0.3 percentage points to 3.7%, consistent with the move down in own-price growth expectations.

Firms reported that annual wage growth was 4.2% in the three months to May, down 0.1 percentage points from the three months to April. Expected year-ahead wage growth was unchanged at 3.4% in the three months to May. This implies that firms expect their wage growth to decline by 0.8 percentage points over the next 12 months.

Firms reported that realised annual employment growth was -0.3% in the three months to May, up from -0.4% in the three months to April. Expectations for employment growth over the next year weakened, falling by 0.3 percentage points to -0.3% in the three months to May.

Since April, the DMP survey has asked firms how they expect the recent energy shock to affect their business over the next 12 months. In May, higher prices and lower profit margins continue to be the most common forms of adjustment. 57% of firms expected to increase their prices (down 7 percentage points since April), and 5% expected to lower prices. 68% of firms expected their profit margins to be lower (unchanged since April). The picture was more mixed on wages, with 24% expecting wages to be higher (down 2 percentage points since April) and 19% expecting them to be lower. Sales and employment are also expected to be lower than they would have been, on average.

The next release date for the DMP survey data will be 3 July 2026.

The DMP was set up in August 2016 and is run by the Bank of England in collaboration with King’s College London and the University of Nottingham. It was designed to be representative of the population of UK businesses. All results are weighted. See Bunn et al (2024) for more details.

The DMP receives funding from the Economic and Social Research Council.