The SEI researchers worked with local agencies and stakeholders to learn more about their goals and what questions they wanted to explore, as well as how they measure successful planning outcomes. After running about 500 scenarios through the year 2065, the year of the net-zero target, the outcomes of these scenarios could point to “low-regret” decisions that bring Thailand closer to its goals, regardless of which way the uncertainties break.

“You’re planning not for an optimal set of decisions in a deterministic future, but a tolerable set of decisions in an uncertain future,” Binnington said.

Currently, natural gas fuels about 62% of Thailand’s electricity generation, with coal making up 20% and other sources like renewable energy, biofuels and hydroelectricity in the mix. The country also imports hydropower from neighboring Lao PDR, which is subject to volatility when rainfall patterns change.

What the scenario exercise indicates is that building out more and more diverse renewable energy infrastructure does not increase the cost of electricity or impede other electricity goals in the country, such as maintaining or improving power system reliability. The country also holds lots of potential for solar-powered energy and energy storage, and could benefit from increased transmission ties between different power planning regions to lower cost and better pool electricity resources.

Scenarios suggest that gas can remain a source of electricity in the long run even while meeting the country’s emissions goals, but its share of the power mix will need to be reduced significantly over time when combined with cleaner electricity sources, such as solar.

Perhaps more important than the results are EPPO’s newly acquired skills using LEAP and NEMO. They learned how to update some of the assumptions in the underlying model, how to run additional scenarios, and answer specific policy questions using the electricity model of Thailand, built by SEI for the IRRP analysis.

In response, EPPO’s Director-General called for the creation of a core team of technical staff to maintain and use the model going forward. SEI looks forward to continuing to contribute its expertise to EPPO’s long-term vision of consolidating various modelling initiatives into a single cross-cutting model that covers all energy sectors, unlocking new model capabilities and enabling EPPO to tackle additional energy-related questions and priorities.