Food price shocks and social instability

The report, launched at the Food, Agriculture and Water Day at COP29, reveals that the impacts of climate change pose threats to food production and trade, with critical implications for food security around the world. Geopolitical tensions and conflicts are also accelerating globally, with 59 active conflicts in 2023, affecting food production and food trade.

The relationship between transboundary climate risks and food production under increased geopolitical tensions – like the Russian invasion of Ukraine – is explored in the report.

“Food trade is being used as means of power (weaponized) in geopolitical conflicts. But collaboration among small groups of countries with common goals or shared risks emerges as a potential solution to manage climate risks to food security under increasing geopolitical tensions,” said lead author Sara Talebian, SEI Research Fellow and active in Mistra Geopolitics.

Particularly, climate impacts on agriculture – such as floods and droughts – pose significant risks to food security. These “cascading” climate risks spread globally through international trade, leading to food price shocks, reduced food accessibility and social instability across borders and regions.

Many countries are also dependent on food imports from main “breadbasket” producers. For example, flooding in Pakistan would directly affect people in Pakistan, but could also cause effects on rice production in the European Union, leading to a shortage of rice in the EU.

Hunger and how to manage food security risks

To add to this increased risk scenario, progress towards achieving the Sustainable Development Goal 2, aiming to end hunger by 2030, is going in the wrong direction, with over 100 million more suffering from hunger in 2022 compared to 2019. The current scenario shows that 582 million people, or 6.8 percent of the global population, will be chronically undernourished in 2030.

“By minimizing food waste, directing dietary patterns towards more plant-based food and boosting domestic capacities for climate-resilient agriculture – food security can be addressed more efficiently in both high-income and low-income countries,” said Sara Talebian, SEI.

The report “Solutions for managing food security risks in a rapidly changing geopolitical landscape” shows that:

• Enhancing domestic capacities for climate-resilient agriculture is crucial for reducing dependency on global food markets and mitigating the transboundary effects of climate impacts.
• Collaboration among small groups of countries with common goals or shared risks emerges as a potential solution to manage transboundary climate risks to food security.
• Transitioning dietary patterns towards more plant-based food and reducing food waste are recommended to reduce environmental impacts, improve resource efficiency, and enhance food availability and security.

The authors conclude that adaptable policy responses, equipped against future uncertainties, are required to address transboundary climate risks to food security.

Multifaceted approaches to enhancing food security – from improving domestic food production to engaging in new platforms and processes for transnational collaboration – can also help strengthen the resilience of global food systems in the face of accelerating effects from climate change and geopolitical tensions.