What prompted major MDBs to disclose their proprietary data, such as credit data, to the public?

Unlike in developed economies, there is a deficit of reliable data on credit performance in the emerging markets where MDBs operate. This leads to misconceptions about the level of risk in those regional debt markets. Therefore, major MDBs have decided to disclose their aggregated detailed default and recovery statistics at a more granular level in response to shareholders’ demand for greater transparency.

By making their own credit data publicly available, MDBs are empowering private and public investors with valuable insights into the actual creditworthiness indicators of borrowers in developing countries. This information is crucial for investors who often perceive these markets as high risk due to a lack of data. The MDBs are playing a key role in changing this perception.

How significant are the data being shared?

The published data have additional granularity which may help refine credit models. Robust credit models are fundamental to lending volume and pricing decisions, capital adequacy assessment, and overall strategic decisions to operate in specific markets. MDB’s private sector data should also catalyze private investors to invest more in emerging markets.

What are the key insights from the recent GEMs publication of private sector defaults and recoveries?

To underscore the reliability of the insights, it should first be highlighted that the GEMs report has one of the biggest populations of approximately 2000 private sector defaults. For comparison, the S&P’s Emerging and frontier markets corporate default summary showcases around 500 default instances since 1997.

  The GEMs report reveals that private-sector lending in EMDEs has a historical average default rate of 3.56%, which implies S&P Corporates' B rating. The annual default rates were surprisingly stable and slightly below the historical average for the past 20 years. The fact that lending in frontier markets did not result in high default rates is a remarkable finding, especially given that the MDBs prioritize development goals over profitability.

The data also highlight that financials comprise 36% of MDBs and IFIs borrowers, while utilities comprise approximately 14%. The financials have the lowest default rate among all sectors. Such MDBs’ sectoral concentration facilitates credit transmission into the economies of developing countries via financial intermediaries. While lending to renewable energy and sustainable utilities infrastructure simultaneously reduces climate risk.

What steps has GEMs Consortium taken to improve the data?

GEMs Consortium continuously improves the data to increase their usability and credibility among investors and stakeholders. The consortium has already updated its methodology documentation, providing detailed explanations of data collection processes and sources. Additionally, GEMs Consortium invests in streamlined data collection technologies to ensure more timely and granular updates, facilitating better decision-making in fast-changing market conditions.

How can sovereign data disclosures help the borrowers?

Disclosing sovereign default and recovery data is important as they detail the performance of an MDB sovereign lending in a specific country. Such disclosures should help investors enter cofinancing agreements with an MDB. For example,   ADB’s report on sovereign default and loss rates demonstrates the low credit risk in ADB's sovereign operations, with an average default rate of 0.54% over the last 34 years and zero new defaults from 2010 to 2021. The data underscore the strength of ADB's relationship with its developing member countries and the preferred creditor treatment accorded to ADB.

The recent strides made by MDBs in enhancing credit data disclosures are a testament to their commitment to transparency and accountability. These efforts, when continued, will ensure that stakeholders, including governments, civil society, and the public, have access to reliable and comprehensive data. This, in turn, will contribute to sustainable development and financial stability on a global scale.

In conclusion, the true utility of data is realized only when there is widespread global awareness of their free availability. While collecting and publishing data are essential steps, effective dissemination is key to maximizing their impact. The MDB community can significantly enhance the development benefits by engaging independent market participants to review, comment on, and utilize credit data. This collaborative approach not only enriches the value of the data but also fosters broader participation, ultimately driving meaningful outcomes.

---