Almost 10 years on from the Scottish independence referendum – which saw 55% of voters choose to remain within the union on an almost 85% turnout – independence remains a divisive topic. Polls have shown a higher level of support for independence since the 2014 referendum, though for the majority of the time the average has been below 50%. 

During this period the Scottish National Party continued to have electoral success and has been the party with the most seats in Holyrood since 2007. It also secured the largest number of Scottish MPs in Westminster since 2015. ⁸³ Richard Cracknell, Elise Uberoi, Matthew Burton, UK Election Statistics: 1918-2023, A Long Century of Elections, House of Commons Library, 2023, p. 25, researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/CBP-7529/CBP-7529.pdf.  However, recent controversy including the collapse of the SNP and Green Party cooperation agreement, the recent churn of party leaders, and a decline in opinion polling ratings suggest a less certain electoral prospects for the party.

Following the collapse of power sharing in Northern Ireland in 2017 there was rising support for Irish Reunification. UK law provides for the possibility of a border poll if it seems likely that a majority of voters in Northern Ireland would vote for reunification. As of 2022 almost a third of those surveyed preferred Irish reunification, coming close to the level of support for devolved government. 

In 2024 Northern Ireland saw for the first time a government headed by a first minister from Sinn Fein after the party won the most seats in the Northern Ireland assembly election in 2022. Sinn Fein advocates for a united Ireland. This led to nationalist affiliated parties saying they expect there to be a border poll by the end of the decade. In part the result for Sinn Fein was linked to a decline in support for the DUP in an election where the Alliance Party – a non-aligned party – surged. If the Alliance Party became the second largest party in the Northern Ireland Assembly this would require constitutional reform to grant them the deputy first minister post.

In Wales, the Independent Commission on the Constitutional Future of Wales was set up as part of the cooperation agreement between Labour and Plaid Cymru in 2021. ⁸⁴ This agreement was cancelled by Plaid Cymru in May 2024 It outlined and assessed three “viable option[s] for the governance of Wales in the long term”: enhanced devolution, a federal UK structure and Welsh independence. These recommendations are unlikely to be implemented in full as it would require UK parliament legislation and the UK parties have not given unequivocal support. Yet it illustrates the continuing appetite to reopen the Welsh devolution settlement.