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Liz Truss an easily predictable train wreck

Liz Truss - Photo source: Simon Dawson via Wikimedia Commons

LONDON, UNITED KINGDOM, October 19, 2022 / -- On September 7th DMR asked its PR agency to publish what its analysis of online posts was telling us about Liz Truss. Sadly, the Queen passed away the next day, so the report was never published.

DMR decided to share it even after the fact as it is an illuminating illustration of the kind of robust AI driven “social intelligence” that is now possible – one can verify by reading actual posts that are shared below.

- The report that was never published before

This is the 4th report produced by DMR with data gathered from social media and other public online sources between July 11 and September 6, 2022, on UK Politicians.

The sources of posts included in this report are Twitter, news, blogs, forums, reviews and video.

It is important to make a distinction between polls which are based on a sample of respondents and social intelligence which is not based on a sample - this is a unique report and the first of its kind.

The main KPIs used to rank the subjects of this research were:

1. Share of Voice (SoV) calculated based on the total volume of posts for each politician. The total number of posts for all within a category was used as the base to calculate the shares.
2. Net Sentiment Score (NSS) a metric coined, and trade marked by DMR to measure sentiment using a single KPI. Online posts were automatically labelled with sentiment using a proprietary AI model that DMR trained to do this job with high accuracy.

- The Share of Voice of the 3 politicians included in this press release

The 3 politicians are ranked based on total number of posts from all sources.
#of posts
Liz Truss - 3,450,705
Rishi Sunak - 1,649,759
Keir Starmer - 659,615

It is now the 3rd time that the total number of posts or share of voice is predictive of who will win an election.

In the previous report we published Rishi was leading in this metric and he was the one elected with the highest number of conservative MP votes. Now from July 11 to September 5th the tables turned. Liz has more than double as many posts as Rishi and won the vote of the 170,000 conservative members.

- The NSS of the 3 politicians

In terms of NSS during the 24 hours post Liz’s election the SoV ranking is turned on its head.

Keir has positive 3% whilst Rishi Sunak is closer to him with negative 3% and Liz has negative 8% a whole 11% worse score in public sentiment than the leader of the Labour Party.

- Post examples of non conservative supporters (mostly Labour) about the 2025 election:

"Thank God Liz Truss got it Conservatives should lose the next election in that case 😁"

"She’ll be a disaster > General Election> Labour win. Job done, the country rejoices."

"-The Conservative Party is done! The Brits to welcome Labour in their next general election."

"This is a great opportunity for Labor …….soon Liz Truss will end up resigning or lose the next election..."

It is quite clear that they all think Liz was the wrong choice to go against Keir.

- Conclusion

The two final candidates (Liz+Rishi) of the conservative PM race were selected in multiple voting iterations by ~350 conservative MPs.

On September 5th ~170,000 conservative members voted and elected Liz Truss as the Prime Minister.

The total electorate for parliamentary votes in the UK has over 46 million voters.

Our report reflects the opinions of the 46 million voters.

Had the conservative members been privy of the DMR report they would have voted for Rishi Sunak.

Since this data was predictive for the last two finalists and for the September 5th vote will it also be predictive for the national election results in 2025? It looks like it is when 2 out of 2 times the share of voice predicted the outcome!

DMR posits that it is about time for social intelligence to take its rightful place in the political forecasting business.

Stay tuned for more data from DMR on the subject.

Michalis Michael
+44 20 3795 4715
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