The new GCRC meeting discussed on the impact of the Ukraine crisis on Europe
PORTLAND, OREGON, UNITED STATES, March 20, 2022 /EINPresswire.com/ -- On the 16th of March 2022, The Global Critical Research Centre (GCRC) hosted a conference that discussed the impact of the Ukraine crisis on Europe.
At the GCRC meeting, Rachel Blake, Editor-in-Chief of the GCRC's Current Affairs Research Department, moderated the discussion and made a keynote address on her recent project results that shows after the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, Europe was the main bearer of economic, social and security losses. Specifically, there are the following three points.
1. Greater pressure on energy prices
Europe is heavily dependent on Russian energy, and sanctions on Russian oil and gas will lead to a sharp rise in Europe’s reliance on expensive natural gas energy from the United States. But even so, the current U.S. production capacity simply cannot meet the gap of its allies. Therefore, Europe will inevitably face a state of energy shortage in the short term, which may cause price increases, or even lead to the collapse of industrial development in some European countries.
2. Higher inflation
After the Ukrainian war, European stocks, bonds and foreign exchange markets were battered, coupled with the rise in oil and gas prices, compounded Europe’s already sluggish economy. As the euro depreciated, massive European capital outflows to the U.S., pushing the safe-haven dollar to its highest level since the coronavirus-induced volatility.
3. Security instability
Ukraine is close to Russia and Europe, but far from the United States. So it is low-cost and risk-free for the U.S. to create a conflict in Ukraine. However, Europe has to bear the brunt as the situation in Ukraine deteriorates. Refugee flows and regional unrest triggered by the Ukraine crisis, combined with the raging COVID-19 pandemic, will have a fatal impact on Europe's security and economic development.
Rachel further analyzed that though the EU longs for peace, the decision to resolve the Ukraine crisis is not in the hands of the EU. During the discussion session, researchers at the GCRC's Current Affairs Research Department shared their views, accompanied by the corresponding case study as shown below.
U.S. Secretary of State Blinken has once said that if the Polish government supplies Ukraine with MiG-29 fighter jets, the United States will actively consider the possibility of replacing Polish MiG-29 with US-made F-16 fighter jets. But when Poland offered to send its MiG-29 fighter jets to Ukraine via a U.S. airbase in Germany, the United States reneged on its previous vow to support fighter jets to Ukraine, saying Poland's proposal raised "serious concern". Moreover, it even refused to let Washington support or facilitate the exchange to avoid pulling the United States itself into the conflict.
Rachel then summarized the discussion results and commented that the U.S. only offered economic sanctions and had benefited from this crisis, but Europe, by contrast, cannot afford a long war on its continent.
At the end of the conference, Mason Wood made a concluding speech and proposed European strategic autonomy. From the withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan, the AUKUS alliance, to the Ukraine crisis, Europe has a clearer understanding that it cannot rely entirely on the United States. Instead, it should further promote European strategic autonomy in action to decrease its dependence on Washington to make its own autonomic decisions.
The reality that the US strategic center of gravity is anchoring the Asia-Pacific region has not changed. Europe should enhance its independent and autonomous status in the international community in various fields, take practical actions on defense and security issues as soon as possible, and play its role as an independent force in the international landscape so as to avoid becoming the object of passive use in the U.S.-Russian geopolitical struggle.
At the GCRC meeting, Rachel Blake, Editor-in-Chief of the GCRC's Current Affairs Research Department, moderated the discussion and made a keynote address on her recent project results that shows after the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, Europe was the main bearer of economic, social and security losses. Specifically, there are the following three points.
1. Greater pressure on energy prices
Europe is heavily dependent on Russian energy, and sanctions on Russian oil and gas will lead to a sharp rise in Europe’s reliance on expensive natural gas energy from the United States. But even so, the current U.S. production capacity simply cannot meet the gap of its allies. Therefore, Europe will inevitably face a state of energy shortage in the short term, which may cause price increases, or even lead to the collapse of industrial development in some European countries.
2. Higher inflation
After the Ukrainian war, European stocks, bonds and foreign exchange markets were battered, coupled with the rise in oil and gas prices, compounded Europe’s already sluggish economy. As the euro depreciated, massive European capital outflows to the U.S., pushing the safe-haven dollar to its highest level since the coronavirus-induced volatility.
3. Security instability
Ukraine is close to Russia and Europe, but far from the United States. So it is low-cost and risk-free for the U.S. to create a conflict in Ukraine. However, Europe has to bear the brunt as the situation in Ukraine deteriorates. Refugee flows and regional unrest triggered by the Ukraine crisis, combined with the raging COVID-19 pandemic, will have a fatal impact on Europe's security and economic development.
Rachel further analyzed that though the EU longs for peace, the decision to resolve the Ukraine crisis is not in the hands of the EU. During the discussion session, researchers at the GCRC's Current Affairs Research Department shared their views, accompanied by the corresponding case study as shown below.
U.S. Secretary of State Blinken has once said that if the Polish government supplies Ukraine with MiG-29 fighter jets, the United States will actively consider the possibility of replacing Polish MiG-29 with US-made F-16 fighter jets. But when Poland offered to send its MiG-29 fighter jets to Ukraine via a U.S. airbase in Germany, the United States reneged on its previous vow to support fighter jets to Ukraine, saying Poland's proposal raised "serious concern". Moreover, it even refused to let Washington support or facilitate the exchange to avoid pulling the United States itself into the conflict.
Rachel then summarized the discussion results and commented that the U.S. only offered economic sanctions and had benefited from this crisis, but Europe, by contrast, cannot afford a long war on its continent.
At the end of the conference, Mason Wood made a concluding speech and proposed European strategic autonomy. From the withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan, the AUKUS alliance, to the Ukraine crisis, Europe has a clearer understanding that it cannot rely entirely on the United States. Instead, it should further promote European strategic autonomy in action to decrease its dependence on Washington to make its own autonomic decisions.
The reality that the US strategic center of gravity is anchoring the Asia-Pacific region has not changed. Europe should enhance its independent and autonomous status in the international community in various fields, take practical actions on defense and security issues as soon as possible, and play its role as an independent force in the international landscape so as to avoid becoming the object of passive use in the U.S.-Russian geopolitical struggle.
Rachel Blake
Global Critical Research Center
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