Summary: The oil price shock has hit Algeria’s economy hard and exposed the longstanding vulnerabilities of a growth model dependent on hydrocarbon and public spending. The fiscal position—already weakened by a ramp-up in spending in the wake of the Arab Spring—has deteriorated further as oil revenues plummeted. Once-substantial fiscal savings have been nearly depleted to finance large budget deficits. Following several years of comfortable surpluses, the current account balance has swung sharply into deficit and official reserves, while still large, are diminishing. The banking system as a whole appears healthy, but financial stability risks are increasing. The policy response in 2015 was insufficient, but the 2016 budget calls for a sharp reduction in spending, and the authorities have initiated some reforms, including a much needed reform of the subsidy system.

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