World Economic Outlook: Hopes, Realities, and Risks
World Economic and Financial Surveys
World Economic Outlook (WEO)
Hopes, Realities, and Risks
April 2013
The World Economic Outlook (WEO) presents the IMF staff's analysis and projections of economic developments at the global level, in major country groups (classified by region, stage of development, etc.), and in many individual countries. It focuses on major economic policy issues as well as on the analysis of economic developments and prospects. It is usually prepared twice a year, as documentation for meetings of the International Monetary and Financial Committee, and forms the main instrument of the IMF's global surveillance activities.
Contents
Chapter 3: The Dog That Didn't Bark: Has Inflation Been Muzzled or Was It Just Sleeping?
| Box | |||
| 3.1 | Inflation Targeting Still Makes Sense with a Flatter Phillips Curve? | ||
| Figures | |||
| Chart | Data | 3.1 | The Behavior of Inflation Has Changed |
| Chart | Data | 3.2 | Measures of Current Economic Slack |
| Chart | Data | 3.3 | Current Headline Inflation Compared with Expectations |
| Chart | Data | 3.4 | Rolling Regressions of Inflation Expectations over Actual Inflation |
| Chart | Data | 3.5 | Inflation and Cyclical Unemployment |
| Chart | Data | 3.6 | Changes in the Inflation Process |
| Chart | Data | 3.7 | Robustness to Alternative Estimates of the NAIRU |
| Chart | Data | 3.8 | Actual and Predicted Inflation in the United States |
| Chart | Data | 3.9 | Unemployment and Inflation in Selected Economies |
| Chart | Data | 3.10 | Headline Inflation in the United States and Germany |
Chapter 4: Breaking through the Frontier: Can Today's Dynamic Low-Income Countries Make It?
| Tables | |||
| 4.1 | Takeoffs in Low-Income Countries, 1990– 2011 | ||
| 4.2 | Takeoffs in Low-Income Countries before 1990 | ||
| 4.3 | Crises and the Ends of Growth Takeoffs in Low-Income Countries, 1970–2011 | ||
| 4.4 | Explaining Growth Takeoffs in Dynamic Developing Economies | ||
| 4.5 | Data Sources | ||
| 4.6 | Economy Groups | ||
| 4.7 | Logistic Regression Robustness to Alternative Specifications and Definition | ||
| 4.8 | Logistic Regression Robustness to Alternative Estimation Methods, Full Sample | ||
| Figures | |||
| Chart | Data | 4.1 | Economic Performance of Low-Income Countries and Others |
| Chart | Data | 4.2 | Frequency of New and Ongoing Takeoffs in Low-Income Countries |
| Chart | Data | 4.3 | The Global Environment behind Low-Income Countries’ Growth Takeoffs |
| Chart | Data | 4.4 | Real Output per Capita after Takeoff in Low-Income Countries |
| Chart | Data | 4.5 | Economic Structure and Real Output per Capita after Takeoff in Low-Income Countries |
| Chart | Data | 4.6 | Investment and Financing in Low-Income Countries |
| Chart | Data | 4.7 | Macroeconomic Conditions in Low-Income Countries |
| Chart | Data | 4.8 | External Competitiveness, Export Growth, and Diversification in Low-Income Countries |
| Chart | Data | 4.9 | Structural Reforms, Infrastructure, and Political Conditions in Low-Income Countries |
| Chart | Data | 4.10 | Investment and Financing across the Spectrum of Today’s Dynamic Low- Income Countries |
| Chart | Data | 4.11 | Contributors to the Changing Likelihood of a Growth Takeoff in Low-Income Countries |
| Chart | Data | 4.12 | Brazil’s and Korea’s Growth Experience during 1960–90 |
| Chart | Data | 4.13 | Indonesia’s Growth Experience since the 1960s |
| Chart | Data | 4.14 | Mozambique’s Growth Experience since the 1990s |
| Chart | Data | 4.15 | Cambodia’s Growth Experience since the 1990s |
| Chart | Data | 4.16 | Macroeconomic Conditions for Non-HIPC-Eligible Low-Income Countries |
| Chart | Data | 4.17 | Aid and FDI Flows to Non-HIPC-Eligible Low-Income Countries |
©2013 International Monetary Fund
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