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FirstAlert(tm) Digest 8/20/10: S&P 500 Collapses

- Technical Market Commentary -

August 20, 2010 (FinancialWire) (By Frank Kollar) (Go to http://www.financialwire.net/?s=cmmtry for all recent commentaries.) — Both the S&P 500 Index (SPX) and its tracking ETF, the S&P Deposit Receipts (NYSE: SPY), collapsed in heavy volume on Thursday, August 19th. This was not unexpected.

Tuesday August 17th’s rally pulled back almost 50% by the close. Though there was a gain on the day, but losing substantial ground in the final hours on low volume is bearish. Wednesday August 18th’s rally faded in the final two hours and both SPX and SPY closed with barely a fractional gain. And, once again, volume was extremely low.

Thursday’s decline started at the open, even though premarket futures had factored in a nice gain at the start. Nevertheless the market dropped immediately and stayed down. The selling was on heavy volume. SPX lost 1.7% and SPY lost 1.8%.

A note on volume: This is near the end of August and volume is always light with many traders and investors on vacation. But even with these factors, Thursday’s declines were on heavy volume.

Thursday’s close was at a new low for both the SPY and SPX. In fact it was the lowest close since July 21st. SPY has support at $106 and the SPX has support at 1056.88. If we close below these levels in coming days, we expect declines to continue with a test of the July 1st correction lows probable.

(Go to http://www.financialwire.net/2010/04/22/about-kollar/ for more about Mr. Kollar, and go to http://www.financialwire.net/?s=kllrfby+cmmtry for more of Kollar’s commentaries.)

**Today’s FirstAlert(tm) is brought to you by Marshal Shichtman & Associates, P.C. (see below).**

The FirstAlert(tm) Earnings Calendar highlights 1-800-flowers.com (FLWS) Q4 2010 Earnings Release.

FirstAlert(tm) Website of the Day: http://infoescrow.net/f/?u=http://www.baseball-almanac.com/recbooks/rb_grsl.shtml

Quote of the Day: "Will it not be wise to allow the friendship between nations to rest upon deep and permanent things? Irritations of the cuticle must not be confounded with heart failure." — Benjamin Harrison

Word of the Day: ruction \ RUHK-shuhn \, noun: A disturbance, quarrel, or row.

In context: "If ever a ruction starts we haven't a chance. And we've all got our women and children to recollect. We've got to be peaceable at any price, and put up with whatever dirt is heaped on us." — Jack London, The Star Rover.

(The origin of ruction is uncertain, though it possibly derives from insurrection.)

Today is: Virtual World’s Day

Happy Birthday: (1946) Connie Chung

Today in History: Lewis and Clark’s "Corps of Discovery,” exploring the Louisiana Purchase in 1804, suffered its only death when Sergeant Charles Floyd dies, apparently from acute appendicitis.

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Disclosure: Frank Kollar’s Fibtimer.com (http://www.fibtimer.com/) ETF Timing Strategy has a position in the S&P 500 SPDRS.

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