- Technical Market Commentary -

July 13, 2010 (FinancialWire) (By Frank Kollar) — Shares of Dell, Inc. (NASDAQ: DELL) have been declining since mid-April 2010. During that time-frame Dell has had two failed rallies, the first on May 13th and the second on June 17th, with each rally high being lower than the previous one. That sets-up a declining trend resistance line (a line drawn through the highs), and unless Dell can break above it the odds favor lower lows ahead. One Monday July 12 Dell touched that line, currently at about $13.05, and then pulled back to close at $12.84.

Dell reached lows well below its lows of December 2009 to February 2010 last week. Those lows held declines for four months, and they are now broken.

Dell’s recent July 6th intra-day low (at $11.72 per share) was just a fraction below its July 14, 2009 correction low of $11.84. Dell then closed just above that 2009 low on that same day

If Dell closes below $11.84 per share in coming days it will be at a new trading low (since back in July 2009), and the odds are that Dell shares will post lower lows going forward.

To have a chance of a continued advance, Dell stock needs to close above $14.06 per share.

The FirstAlert(tm) “Money Index” is an indicator of the depth of market direction or indirection. While not always including the same stocks, the NYSE/NASDAQ/AMEX 24 to 25 most actives and NYSE/NASDAQ/AMEX greatest percentage losers and percentage winners (weighted against pure monetary loss/gain) indicate the direction in which the mass of money is flowing, as well as the general focus of the market. Last session’s most actives showed 18 advancers versus 7 decliners. Volume leaders were led by YRC Worldwide, Inc. (NASDAQ: YRCW) (streaming research for YRCW available at http://investrend.stocksmart.com/ri/toc?tid=7771), Citigroup, Inc. (NYSE: C) (streaming research for Citigroup available at http://investrend.stocksmart.com/ri/toc?tid=7921), the SPDRS S&P 500 Trust ETF (AMEX: SPY) (streaming research for SPY available at http://investrend.stocksmart.com/ri/toc?tid=34430), the PowerShares QQQ Trust ETF (NASDAQ: QQQQ) (streaming research for QQQQ available at http://investrend.stocksmart.com/ri/toc?tid=1044870), Intel Corp. (NASDAQ: INTC) (streaming research for INTC available at http://investrend.stocksmart.com/ri/toc?tid=3619), Bank of America Corp. (NYSE: BAC) (streaming research for BAC available at http://investrend.stocksmart.com/ri/toc?tid=8456), Microsoft Corp. (NASDAQ: MSFT) (streaming research for MSFT available at http://investrend.stocksmart.com/ri/toc?tid=4652) and the Financial Select Sector SPDRS ETF (AMEX: XLF) (streaming research for XLF available at http://investrend.stocksmart.com/ri/toc?tid=1026233).

The FirstAlert(tm) Economics Calendar lists International Trade Balances for May (8:30 am ET); Weekly Chain Store Sales (8:55 am ET); Treasury auctions 10-year notes (1 pm ET); Treasury Budget Statement for June (2 pm ET).

The FirstAlert(tm) Events Calendar showcases CAST, CGA, HRBN, NKBP at the Global Hunter Securities 2010 China Conference; KLAC, AMAT, MKSI at SEMICON West 2010.

The FirstAlert(tm) Earnings Calendar highlights AAR Corp. Q4 2010 Earnings Release; Asset Mngrs Co Ltd Tokyo Q1 2011 Earnings Release; Castellum AB Q2 2010 Earnings Release; DA Office Invstmnt Corp Tokyo Q4 2010 Earnings Release; Doutor Nichires Hldgs Co Ltd Q1 2011 Earnings Release; DTZ Holdings PLC Prelim 2009 Earnings Release; Fastenal Q2 2010 Earnings Release; Hi-Tech Pharmacal Q4 2010 Earnings Release; Infosys Technologies Ltd Q1 2011 Earnings Release.

Quote of the Day: "Neither irony nor sarcasm is argument." — Rufus Choate (10/01/1799 – 07/13/1859), US Senator (MA).

Word of the Day: subtilize \SUHT-l-ahyz\, verb: 1. To make (the mind, senses, etc.) keen or discerning. 2. To elevate in character. 3. To make thin, rare, or more fluid or volatile; refine.

In context: “By long brooding over our recollections, we subtilize them into something akin to imaginary stuff, and hardly capable of being distinguished from it.” — Nathanial Hawthorne, The Blithedale Romance.

Today is: Embrace Your Geekness Day

Happy Birthday: 100 BC – Julius Caesar, Dictator of the Roman Republic (d. 44 BC); 1590 – Pope Clement X (d. 1676); # 1934 – Wole Soyinka, Nigerian writer, Nobel laureate; 1934 – Aleksei Yeliseyev, Soviet cosmonaut; 1942 – Harrison Ford, American actor; 1950 – Ma Ying-jeou, President of the Republic of China, former mayor of Taipei, former chairman of the Kuomintang  (KMT); # 1953 – Mila Mulroney, Yugoslavian-born Canadian First Lady, wife of Prime Minister Brian Mulroney; 1956 – Michael Spinks, American boxer; 1974 – Jarno Trulli, Italian race car driver; 1982 – Nick Kenny, Australian Rugby League player; 1989 – Sayumi Michishige, Japanese singer (Morning Musume).

Today in History: 1174 – William I of Scotland, a key rebel  in the Revolt of 1173–1174, is captured at Alnwick by forces loyal to Henry II of England; 1573 – Eighty Years' War: the Siege of Haarlem ends after seven months; 1830 – The General Assembly's Institution, now the Scottish Church College, one of the pioneering institutions that ushered the Bengal Renaissance, is founded by Alexander Duff and Raja Ram Mohan Roy, in Calcutta, India; 1919 – The British airship  R34 lands in Norfolk, England, completing the first airship return journey across the Atlantic in 182 hours of flight; 1923 – The Hollywood Sign is officially dedicated in the hills above Hollywood, Los Angeles. It originally reads "Hollywoodland " but the four last letters are dropped after renovation in 1949; 1973 – Alexander Butterfield reveals the existence of the Nixon tapes to the special Senate committee investigating the Watergate break in; 1985 – The Live Aid  benefit concert takes place in London and Philadelphia, as well as other venues such as Sydney and Moscow.

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Disclosure: Frank Kollar’s Fibtimer.com Stock Timing Strategy does not currently hold a position in Dell, Inc.

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