- Commentary -

December 29, 2009 (FinancialWire) (By Philip Holmes) — As holiday retail sales figures stream in, it’s increasingly clear that 2009 was no 2008. The data shows more life in the consumer economy than many feared was there, and have boosted the fortunes of both Walmart (NYSE: WMT), at the low end, and Macy’s (NYSE: M), in the middle range.

The news boosted stocks overall, albeit in light trading volume. The Dow Jones industrial average closed at 10,547.08, up by 26.98 points, while the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index gained 1.30 points to finish at 1,127.78. The Nasdaq Composite Index saw a 5.39 point rise, to close at 2,291.08.

Retailers saw a jump in online and last minute buying, according to figures reported by Bloomberg on Monday. Overall US retail sales were up by an estimated 3.6% over the 2009 holiday season. Jewelry and luxury sales were up, year- over-year, and electronics sales rebounded by 5.9 percent from November 1 to December 24, according to MasterCard Advisors’ SpendingPulse.

The market reacted, sending Walmart shares up by 10%. Macy’s shares saw a 2.1% jump during the trading day.

Does all this mean that the American consumer is back? Maybe. The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index got a boost in November, both in terms of the Present Situation index and the Expectations index. I think we’re seeing tangible proof of this in the holiday till. But many things need to happen to sustain the good mood, most notably a decrease in unemployment. But consumers will also be hampered by rising mortgage interest rates and continued sluggishness in credit availability.

But at least we’ve avoided another Christmas catastrophe at the malls. That would not have helped sustain confidence at all.

[Go to http://www.financialwire.net/?s=philip+holmes to see more commentaries by Philip Holmes.]

The FirstAlert(tm) Economics Calendar lists Weekly Chain Store Sales (8:55 a.m.), Case-Shiller Home Price Index for October (9 a.m.), Consumer Confidence Index for December (10 a.m.), Treasury auctions 5-year notes (1 p.m.).

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Today in History: Texas was admitted as the 28th U.S. state in 1845. The first American-based YMCA opened in Boston, Massachusetts, in 1851. Thomas Edison patented the radio in 1891. The first college basketball game at Madison Square Garden in New York City was played in 1934, between the University of Notre Dame and New York University. Hong Kong began killing all the nation’s chickens (1.25 million) to stop the spread of a potentially deadly influenza strain in 1997.

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