- Technical Commentary -

July 17, 2009 (FinancialWire) (By Frank Kollar) — The Nasdaq Composite and Nasdaq 100 index both broke out to new rally highs on Thursday, July 16. The Nasdaq 100 ETF, Powershares QQQ Trust (NASDAQ: QQQQ) also made new highs closing at $37.01.

There are several very bullish events supporting this breakout and predicting considerably higher highs.

On Monday, July 13, up volume on the NYSE was greater than down volume by a factor of 10 to 1. This is an event that seldom occurs. On Wednesday, the same volume surge again took place but this time it was 23 to 1. A huge buying surge and accompanied by substantially increasing volume.

Back in March we had several such volume surges followed by the March to June market rally.

The preceding June 12 to July 8 correction was a classic 3 wave decline that reached exactly to the 61.8% retracement of the May to June advance before reversing higher.

And of course, new highs are always bullish.

How high can we go? The Qs are currently just above their 50% retracement resistance level (also bullish). This forecasts a run to at least the 61.8% retracement level at $39.45. That is the target, but not necessarily to top, for the coming advance.

Frank Kollar has been timing the financial markets since 1982, with online service since 1996. He is a dedicated trend timer and his strategies exited the markets before the crash in 1987 as well as the bear market in 2000 through 2002. During the 2000-2002 bear market, his bearish positions resulted in gains exceeding 100 percent, all achieved by trading trends.

Kollar is editor and chief analyst at FibTimer.com (http://www.fibtimer.com), which offers market timing strategies for S&P and Nasdaq index fund traders, as well as bond, gold, small cap, sector, ETF and stock trading strategies. Kollar’s research has shown that the financial markets are in tradable trends approximately 80 percent of the time. FibTimer strategies define trends and trade them in both advancing and declining markets. Caring nothing about what newscasters say or what the latest economic indicator predicts, Kollar maintains that trends are where the profits are, and that is where FibTimer is.

The FirstAlerrt(tm) Economics Calendar lists Housing Starts & Building Permits for June at 8:30 a.m. EDT.

The FirstAlerrt(tm) Events Calendar showcases no events today.

The FirstAlerrt(tm) Money Index is an indicator of the depth of market direction or indirection. While not always including the same stocks, the NYSE/NASDAQ/AMEX 25 Most Actives and NYSE/NASDAQ/AMEX greatest Percentage Losers and Percentage Winners (weighted against pure monetary loss/gain) indicate the direction in which the mass of money is flowing, as well as the general focus of the market. Of the Most Actives, last session’s trading showed 15 advancers versus 10 decliners. Volume leaders were led by CIT Group, Inc. (NYSE: CIT) trading 68,985,800 shares closing  at $0.41 (down 75.0%), Citigroup, Inc. (NYSE: C) trading 58,298,100 shares closing at $3.03 (down 4.4%) and the SPDR Trust ETF (NYSE: SPY) trading 53,282,298 shares closing at $94.15 (up 1.0%). Of last session’s Greatest Percentage Losers, stocks taking the greatest monetary losses were led by Nokia Oyj (NYSE: NOK) trading on volume of 11,724,300 shares (losing $8,728.4 million), CIT Group, Inc. (NYSE: CIT) trading on volume of 68,985,800 shares (losing $478.3 million) and Ivanhoe Mines Ltd. (IVN:NYSE: IVN) trading on volume of 2,648,200 shares (losing $472.4 million). Of last session’s Greatest Percentage Winners, stocks making the greatest monetary gains were led by CDC Corp. (NASDAQ: CHINA) trading on volume of 741,710 shares (gaining $49.1 million), Angiotech Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NASDAQ: ANPI) trading on volume of 2,158,913 shares (gaining $37.5 million) and Arca Biopharma, Inc. (NASDAQ: ABIO) trading on volume of 337,4568 shares (gaining $9.6 million).

FirstAlerrt(tm) Website of the Day: http://www.almanac.com/

Quote of the Day: “The four stages of a man are infancy, childhood, adolescence and obsolescence.” Art Linkletter

Today is: Constitution Day in South Korea.

Happy Birthday: John Jacob Astor, Isaac Watts, Erle Stanley Gardner, James Cagney, Art Linkletter, Phyllis Diller, Red Sovine, Vince Guaraldi, Diahann Carroll, Donald Sutherland, David Hasselhoff, J. Michael Straczynski.

Today in History: Catherine II became tzar of Russia in 1762 upon the murder of Peter III of Russia. NEC Corporation was organized in 1899 as the first Japanese joint venture with foreign capital. Joe DiMaggio’s baseball hitting streak was ended in 1941 at 56 games. Disneyland televised its grand opening in Anaheim, California, in 1955. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed above the 2,500 mark for the first time in 1987. The Minnesota Twins became the first team in Major League Baseball to turn two triple plays in a single game, against the Boston Red Sox in 1990. The F.W. Woolworth Company closed in 1997 after 117 years in business. Biologists reported in 1998 in the journal Science how they sequenced the genome of the bacterium that causes syphilis, Treponema pallidum.

[FirstAlert(tm) was created by Gayle Essary, founder of Investrend Communications, Inc., parent of Investrend Information. The opinions expressed in FirstAlert(tm) do not necessarily reflect the opinions of Investrend.]

FinancialWire(tm) is a fully independent, proprietary news wire service. FinancialWire(tm) is not a press release service, and receives no compensation for its news, opinions or distributions. Further disclosure is at the FinancialWire(tm) web site (http://www.financialwire.net/disclosures.php). Contact FinancialWire(tm) directly via inquiries@financialwire.net.

Free annual reports for companies mentioned in the news are available through the Free Annual Reports Service (http://investrend.ar.wilink.com/?level=279).