FirstAlert[tm] 6/12: Short-term Target For S&P 500 SPDRs
Editorial Commentary
June 12, 2009 (FinancialWire) (By Frank Kollar) — The S&P 500 SPDRs (NYSE: SPY) continue their climb with new 2009 highs reached in intra-day trading on Thursday, June 11, though not a new closing high. Looking for a short-term target seems a prudent thing to do considering this advance has now spanned three months.
The 50% retracement of the last leg down in the bear market, spanning August 28, 2008 to March 9, 2009, is about as short term as we can find. That 50% resistance level is at SPY 98.80 about 4.2% above current levels and a likely candidate for the start of some selling.
But the real critical resistance level, one that is likely to result in strong selling if it is reached soon, is the Fib 61.8% retracement at 106.22, about 12.0% above current levels. It may be hard to believe the S&P SPDRs could still move another 12% higher without a correction first, and maybe they won’t, but if we reach SPY 106.22, watch out below.
If we do move lower, initial strong support should be found around SPX 848 which is the 50-day moving average for this big cap index (for the SPY the 50-day moving is at about $85.00).
(Disclosure: The http://www.fibtimer.com ETF Strategy has a position in the S&P 500 SPDRs.)
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