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FirstAlert[tm] 6/3: Best Strategy For Stocks? Think Short Term

fa_logo_sq_225px-w_bwJune 3, 2009 (FinancialWire) (By Dr. Joe Duarte) The S&P 500 (SPX), its proxy ETF, the S&P SPDR (NYSE: SPY) and the Powershares QQQ Trust (Nasdaq: QQQQ) have powered through several key resistance levels lately, a show of rising strength and momentum for the stock market, for the short term.

Thus, unless something changes, it’s possible that Wednesday, and perhaps Thursday could be good days as well as first of the month money from mutual and pension funds continues to come into the stock market. Investors should still be cautious, though, as much of the action in the next couple of days depends on what the private sector employment data shows on Wednesday, and how the market reacts to it. Even more important is what happens Friday, as the Department of Labor’s employment report will be what seals the fate for the rest of the week. Traders got a nice break from the calendar in June, as the first five days of the trading month, usually a bullish period for stocks, came in one week, and it is capped by the employment report. That kind of arrangement gives short-term traders a nice package to deal with.

The QQQQ ETF crossed above its 200-day moving average in early May and successfully tested the support level soon thereafter. Since then it has moved steadily higher, finally conquering levels not seen since October 2008, closing above 36 on 6-1 and 6-2. What’s more encouraging is that volume has been favorable during the rally, and that there is still very little fanfare associated with the rally. In other words, no one is coming up to us and asking us how high this market can go. CNBC has yet to call us for an interview. And the front page of the New York Times has not run any sensational stock market headlines.

As anyone knows, though, this rally is long in the tooth. And a couple of more good days could turn any bears left into bulls. That would be a negative, and could be a clue that there is trouble ahead.

What’s the bottom line? We are in a bullish and convenient calendar period for two or three more days, but much depends on news and events. Still, the market has momentum behind it. And barring any major disasters, Wednesday and Thursday have the potential to be up days. All bets are off for Friday, though. And for that matter for next week and the rest of the summer, which tends to be a dull trading affair anyway. So enjoy the action we’ve had so far, and perhaps the next two days. Beyond that, everything will be day by day.

The Investrend Economics Calendar lists ADP Employment for May (8:15 a.m.), Factory Orders for April (10 a.m.), ISM Services Index for May (10 a.m.), EIA Petroleum Inventories (10:30 a.m.).

The Investrend Events Calendar showcases AET, WLP, HMA, HUM at Citi Healthcare Services Day; BEAV, CW, CVU, TSYS at Stephens Spring Investment Conference; BMR, CSA, UMH, VNO at NAREIT Investor Forum; BRCM, AMAT, QCOM, YHOO at Bank of America and Merrill Lynch U.S. Technology Conference; COF, BX, AXP, WDR at Keefe, Bruyette & Woods, Inc. Diversified Financial Services Conference; DBD, ETN, JBHT, R at KeyBanc Capital Markets Industrial, Automotive & Transportation Conference; DUK Informational Session for Analysts; EPD at Citi Electric Power & Gas Conference; ERTS Analyst Meeting; FE Analyst Meeting; NSC Analyst Meeting; SEE, VAL, CE, CF at Goldman Sachs Basic Materials Conference; SEIC Annual Investor Conference; STP, CLNE, FLR, CSIQ at Lazard Capital Markets Alternative Energy & Infrastructure Conference; SXL at UBS MLP One-on-One Conference; VNR, CPE, BTE, GDP at Hart Energy Energy Capital Conference.

The Investrend Money Index is an indicator of the depth of market direction or indirection. While not always including the same stocks, the NYSE/NASDAQ 50 Most Actives indicate the direction in which the mass of money is flowing. Last session’s trading showed 27 advancers versus 22 decliners and one unchanged. Advancers were led by Suntrust Banks, Inc. (NYSE: STI) up 15.51%, Alcoa, Inc. (NYSE: AA) up 7.02%. Decliners followed Cell Therapeutics, Inc. (NASDAQ: CTIC) down 18.10%, Marvell Technology Group, Ltd. (NASDAQ: MRVL) down 8.00%, Seagate Technology (NYSE: STX) down 7.19%, Netapp, Inc. (NASDAQ: NTAP) down 6.52%, American International Group In (NYSE: AIG) down 6.02%, Juniper Networks, Inc. (NASDAQ: JNPR) down 6.00%.

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Quote of the Day: “Never be haughty to the humble or humble to the haughty.” Jefferson Davis

Today is: National Tailors Day.

Happy Birthday: Jefferson Davis, Barney Oldfield, Josephine Baker, Colleen Dewhurst, Jimmy Rogers, Tony Curtis, Allen Ginsberg, Boots Randolph, Chuck Barris, Marion Zimmer Bradley, Larry McMurtry, Curtis Mayfield, Suzi Quatro.

Today in History: Treaty of Novgorod delineated borders between Russia and Norway in Finnmark in 1326. DeSoto claimed Florida for Spain in 1539. The Dutch West India Company received in 1621 a charter for New Netherlands. The poem “Casey at the Bat,” by Ernest Lawrence Thayer, was published in the San Francisco Examiner in 1888. The Canadian Pacific Railway was completed in 1889 from coast to coast. The first long-distance electric power transmission line in the United States was completed in 1889, running 14 miles between a generator at Willamette Falls and downtown Portland, Oregon, United States. The ROTC was established in 1916 by the U.S. Congress. The Duke of Windsor married Wallis Simpson in 1937. Gemini 4, the first multi-day space mission by a NASA crew, was launched in 1965.

[FirstAlertTM was created by Gayle Essary, founder of Investrend Communications, Inc., parent of Investrend Information (http://www.investrendinformation.com). The opinions expressed in FirstAlertTM do not necessarily reflect the opinions of Investrend.]

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