Malaysia: Selected Economic and Financial Indicators, 2016–25

Nominal GDP (2019): US$364.7 billion

Population (2019): 32.5 million

GDP per capita (2019, current prices): US$11,213

Poverty rate (2019, national poverty line): 5.6 percent

Unemployment rate (2019): 3.3 percent

Adult literacy rate (2018): 95.9 percent

Main goods exports (share in total, 2019, preliminary): electrical & electronics (37.8 percent), commodities (14.7 percent), and petroleum products (7.2 percent).

Est.

Proj.

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

Real GDP (percent change)

4.4

5.8

4.8

4.3

-6.0

6.5

6.0

5.7

5.3

5.0

Total domestic demand 1/

4.8

6.6

4.7

3.9

-4.7

5.3

5.3

6.2

5.7

5.6

Private consumption

5.9

6.9

8.0

7.6

-5.1

4.8

6.5

7.9

6.9

7.0

Public consumption

1.1

5.7

3.2

2.0

11.6

-2.3

1.3

1.6

1.9

1.7

Private investment

4.5

9.0

4.3

1.6

-7.3

7.0

6.0

6.0

5.0

4.0

Public gross fixed capital formation

-1.0

0.3

-5.0

-10.9

-29.9

9.2

1.6

-1.6

2.3

2.3

Net exports (contribution to growth, percentage points)

0.0

-0.3

0.4

0.6

-1.6

1.5

1.1

-0.1

0.0

-0.2

Saving and investment (in percent of GDP)

Gross domestic investment

26.0

25.5

23.9

21.0

21.5

23.8

22.6

22.4

22.3

22.2

Gross national saving

28.4

28.3

26.1

24.4

25.1

26.8

25.6

25.2

25.1

24.9

Fiscal sector (in percent of GDP) 2/

Federal government overall balance

-3.1

-2.9

-3.7

-3.4

-6.0

-5.4

-4.6

-4.3

-4.2

-4.2

Revenue

17.0

16.1

16.1

17.5

15.8

15.2

15.5

15.5

15.5

15.5

Expenditure and net lending

20.1

19.0

19.8

18.5

21.8

20.6

20.1

19.9

19.8

19.7

Tax refunds (Arrears) 3/

2.4

Federal government non-oil primary balance

-3.4

-3.4

-5.3

-6.7

-7.0

-5.4

-4.9

-4.6

-4.4

-4.2

Consolidated public sector overall balance 4/

-5.0

-3.6

-2.9

-3.6

-7.3

-8.0

-6.5

-5.8

-5.6

-5.5

General government debt 4/

55.8

54.4

55.7

57.2

65.8

66.4

66.9

66.7

66.6

66.5

Of which: federal government debt

51.9

50.0

51.2

52.5

61.1

61.8

62.2

62.0

61.9

61.8

Inflation and unemployment (annual average, in percent)

CPI inflation

2.1

3.7

1.0

0.7

-1.1

2.0

2.0

2.0

2.0

2.0

CPI inflation (excluding food and energy)

2.6

1.6

0.4

1.1

1.0

1.5

1.7

1.9

2.0

2.0

Unemployment rate

3.5

3.4

3.3

3.3

4.5

3.8

3.6

3.5

3.5

3.5

Macrofinancial variables (end of period)

Broad money (percentage change) 5/

2.7

4.8

7.7

2.7

5.0

5.0

8.0

7.8

7.6

7.5

Credit to private sector (percentage change) 5/

5.3

5.4

8.3

5.0

4.0

8.3

7.3

7.8

7.6

8.3

Credit-to-GDP ratio (in percent) 6/ 7/

131.9

126.6

130.1

130.8

142.8

142.7

142.7

142.7

142.7

143.9

Overnight policy rate (in percent)

3.00

3.00

3.25

3.00

1.75

…

…

…

…

…

Three-month interbank rate (in percent)

3.4

3.5

3.6

3.3

2.0

…

…

…

…

…

Nonfinancial corporate sector debt (in percent of GDP) 8/

108.0

101.5

102.7

99.4

109.0

…

…

…

…

…

Nonfinancial corporate sector debt issuance (in percent of GDP)

3.1

3.3

2.0

1.8

1.5

…

…

…

…

…

Household debt (in percent of GDP) 8/

86.5

82.6

82.0

82.9

87.5

…

…

…

…

…

Household financial assets (in percent of GDP) 8/

178.6

176.4

175.7

179.2

190.0

…

…

…

…

…

House prices (percentage change)

7.1

6.5

3.3

1.5

2.2

…

…

…

…

…

Exchange rates (period average)

Malaysian ringgit/U.S. dollar

4.15

4.30

4.04

4.14

4.18

…

…

…

…

…

Real effective exchange rate (percentage change)

-3.4

-1.6

4.1

-1.4

-2.0

…

…

…

…

…

Balance of payments (in billions of U.S. dollars) 6/

Current account balance

7.2

8.9

8.0

12.3

12.6

11.5

12.2

12.8

13.5

14.0

(In percent of GDP)

2.4

2.8

2.2

3.4

3.7

3.0

3.0

2.9

2.8

2.7

Goods balance

24.6

27.2

28.4

29.8

32.4

37.0

34.0

32.5

32.5

32.8

Services balance

-4.6

-5.3

-4.3

-2.6

-11.5

-15.2

-6.9

-5.5

-5.0

-5.9

Income balance

-12.8

-13.0

-16.1

-14.9

-8.4

-10.3

-14.9

-14.3

-14.0

-12.9

Capital and financial account balance

0.0

-1.1

2.8

-8.1

-11.9

-9.8

-10.1

-14.0

-9.9

-12.1

Of which: Direct investment

3.3

3.8

2.5

1.3

-0.5

4.9

4.2

4.4

4.7

4.9

Errors and omissions

-5.8

-4.0

-8.9

-2.2

2.1

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Overall balance

1.4

3.8

1.9

2.0

2.8

1.7

2.1

-1.2

3.7

1.9

Gross official reserves (US$ billions) 6/ 9/

94.5

102.4

101.4

103.6

107.6

108.1

110.2

108.9

112.6

114.5

(In months of following year's imports of goods and nonfactor services)

5.6

5.5

5.8

6.7

6.5

5.9

5.7

5.3

5.0

4.6

(In percent of short-term debt by original maturity)

112.2

117.8

103.5

108.3

109.5

111.0

118.4

131.4

145.8

156.5

(In percent of short-term debt by remaining maturity)

83.2

93.7

84.7

86.9

87.5

88.0

92.7

98.7

105.0

111.0

Total external debt (in billions of U.S. dollars) 6/ 9/

203.8

218.8

223.3

231.1

237.9

243.4

241.6

241.2

238.4

245.8

(In percent of GDP)

67.7

68.6

62.3

63.4

69.3

63.8

58.7

54.0

49.6

47.6

Of which: short-term (in percent of total, original maturity)

41.3

39.7

43.9

41.4

40.8

40.0

38.5

34.4

32.4

29.8

short-term (in percent of total, remaining maturity)

55.7

50.0

53.6

51.6

51.1

50.4

49.2

45.8

45.0

42.0

Debt service ratio 6/

(In percent of exports of goods and services) 10/

23.4

14.0

10.6

11.0

13.7

12.5

11.2

10.8

11.0

10.8

(In percent of exports of goods and nonfactor services)

24.8

14.8

11.2

11.7

14.5

13.2

11.8

11.4

11.6

11.4

Memorandum items:

Nominal GDP (in billions of ringgit)

1,250

1,372

1,447

1,511

1,439

1,561

1,674

1,804

1,940

2,085

Sources: Data provided by the authorities; CEIC Data Co. Ltd.; World Bank; UNESCO; and IMF, Integrated Monetary Database and staff estimates.

1/ Based on data provided by the authorities except for 2015 data which is estimated using splicing methodology by IMF.

2/ Cash basis. The authorities plan to adopt accrual basis by 2021. For 2019, overall and primary balance includes the payment of outstanding tax refund (arrears) amounting to

RM37 billion.

3/ Tax refunds in 2019 are allocated for payment of outstanding tax refunds.

4/ Consolidated public sector includes general government and nonfinancial public enterprises (NFPEs). General government includes federal government, state and local governments, and statutory bodies.

5/ Based on data provided by the authorities, but follows compilation methodology used in IMF's Integrated Monetary Database. Credit to private sector in 2018 onwards includes data for a newly licensed commercial bank from April 2018. The impact of this bank is excluded in the calculation of credit gap.

6/ IMF staff estimates. U.S. dollar values are estimated using official data published in national currency.

7/ Based on a broader measure of liquidity. Credit gap is estimated on quarterly data from 2000, using one-sided Hodrick-Prescott filter with a large parameter.

8/ Revisions in historical data reflect the change in base year for nominal GDP (from 2010=100 to 2015=100).

9/ The decrease in short-term debt by remaining maturity in 2017 was partly due to the implementation of an improved data compilation system that corrected previous overestimation.

10/ Includes receipts under the primary income account.

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