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7th IMF Statistical Forum: Measuring the Informal Economy

 Thursday, November 14, 2019  8:15 am Registration and Continental Breakfast   9:30 a.m

Introduction to the Forum

Mr. David Lipton, First Deputy Managing Director, IMF

 9:45 a.m.

Keynote Address (via video)

Ms. Kristalina Georgieva, Managing Director, IMF

 10:20 a.m.

Session I: Definition and Scope of the Informal Economy

Chair: Mr. Louis Marc Ducharme, Chief Statistician and Data Officer, and Director, Statistics Department, IMF

Mr. Leandro Medina and Mr. Friedrich Schneider, Shedding Light on the Shadow Economy: A Global Database (IMF; Austria, Johannes Kepler University) 

Mr. Ahmadou Aly Mbaye and Mr. Ibrahima Tall, Conceptualizing the Informal Sector: Analysis and Application to Francophone Africa (Senegal, Cheikh Anta Diop University/Brookings; National Agency for Statistics and Demography)

Mr. Michael Frosch, Revision of the Standards for Statistics on Informality (International Labour Organization)

Mr. Thomas Alexander, Mr. Gabriel Quirós-Romero, and Ms. Jennifer Ribarsky, State of Play: Importance, Conceptual Fragmentation, and Weak Data Sources (IMF)

Audience Questions

 12:45 p.m. Lunch  2:00 p.m.

Session II: Standard Estimation Practices—Determining the Level and Growth of the Informal Economy

Chair: Ms. Sharmini Coorey, Director, Institute for Capacity Development, IMF

Mr. François Roubaud and Ms. Nghiêm Thị Vân, Measuring the Non-Observed Economy in Vietnam: A Focus on Informal Economy (France, French Research Institute for Sustainable Development; Vietnam, General Statistics Office)

Mr. Federico Sallusti, Detecting Under-Reporting of Value Added and VAT Fraud in National Accounts (Italian National Institute of Statistics)

Mr. Venkata Ramana Murthy Salapaka, Measuring Informal Economy in India (India, National Statistical Office)

Audience Questions

 3:45 p.m.

Session II (continued): Standard Estimation Practices—Determining the Level and Growth of the Informal Economy

Chair: Mr. Abebe Selassie, Director, African Department, IMF

Mr. Ceyhun Elgin, Mr. Ayhan Kose, Ms. Franziska Ohnsorge, and Ms. Shu Yu, Shades of Grey: Measuring the Informal Economy Business Cycles (United States, Boston University; Turkey, Bogazici University; World Bank)

Ms. Lisa Grace S. Bersales and Ms. Vivian R. Ilarina, Measuring the Contribution of the Informal Sector to the Philippine Economy: Current Practices and Challenges (Philippines, University of the Philippines)

Mr. Francisco Guillen, Measurement of the Informal Economy. From Basic to Derived Statistics (Mexico, INEGI)

Discussant: Mr. Sanjiv Mahajan, Head of International Strategy and Coordination, Office for National Statistics, UK

Audience Questions

 5:45 p.m. Cocktail Reception: Hosted by Mr. Tao Zhang, Deputy Managing Director, IMF  Friday, November 15, 2019  9:00 a.m.

Session III: New Techniques, New Technologies, and New Potential Data Sources

Chair: Mr. Tao Zhang, Deputy Managing Director, IMF

Mr. Gene Leon and Mr. Frederico Lima, Estimating Economic Activity in Zimbabwe Using Big Data (IMF)

Mr. Erick Rangel-Gonzalez and Mr. Irving Llamosas-Rosas, An Alternative Method to Measure Non-Registered Economic Activity in Mexico Using Satellite Nightlights (Mexico, Central Bank of Mexico)

Mr. Juan Oviedo Arango and Mr. Ricardo Valencia Ramírez, Informality in Data: A Case Study in the Use of Multidimensional Measure to Capture the Formalization Process (Colombia, National Administrative Department of Statistics)

Ms. Nan Liu, China’s Experiences in Estimating the Informal Economy (China, National Bureau of Statistics)

Audience Questions

 11:30 a.m.

Session IV: Measuring Illicit Flows

Chair: Mr. Gerry Rice, Director, Communications Department, IMF

Ms. Irmgard Zeiler, Mr. Federico Sallusti, Mr. Alexander Kamprad, and Mr. Enrico Bisogno, Measuring Illegal Economic Activities and Illicit Financial Flows: Challenges and Possible Solutions (UN Office on Drugs and Crime; Italian National Institute of Statistics)

Mr. Sugata Marjit, Mr. Amit Biswas, Mr. Sandip Sarkar, Misinvoicing Trade & Informal Capital Movements: The USA - India Case (Visva-Bharati University, India and University of Bonn, Germany; Indian Institute of Foreign Trade, Kolkata, India and CTRPFP, India, CES-Ifo Munich, Germany; Xavier University, Bhubaneshwar, India).

Ms. Rachel Soloveichik, Including Illegal Activity in the U.S. National Accounts (U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis)

Ms. Sarah Atkinson, Toward Developing Estimates of U.S. Cross-Border Trade in Illegal Drugs (U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis)

Audience Questions

 1:15 p.m. Lunch  2:15 p.m.

Session V: Forum Takeaways and Discussion Panel

Chair: Ms. Gillian Tett, Chair, Editorial Board and Editor-at-large - US, The Financial Times

Panelists: Ms. Lisa Grace S. Bersales; Mr. Gabriel Quirós-Romero; Ms. Irmgard Zeiler

Audience Questions

 4:00 p.m.

Closure of Forum