Summary: Abenomics needs a significant policy upgrade to regain traction. Abenomics initially made good progress in revitalizing the economy, but the targets for growth, inflation, and the primary balance remain out of reach under current policies. Recognizing the risk of falling short, the authorities introduced a negative interest rate policy, delayed the planned consumption tax hike, and adopted additional structural reforms, but the outlook remains weak. Abenomics can still achieve its ambitious targets through a comprehensive and coordinated policy upgrade. In the absence of such a reload, policies and targets will need to be reset for more gradual and realistic progress to avoid adding to volatility and uncertainty.

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