Summary: Ireland’s growth has been exceptional, but the recovery is incomplete, and is now subject to appreciable downside risks. GDP growth reached 7.8 percent in 2015, supported by robust domestic demand and exports, and unemployment is receding. Yet the recovery remains to be completed, with employment and consumption below their pre-crisis levels. Vulnerabilities are still elevated due to high public and private debts, and a large stock of nonperforming loans (NPLs). The economic outlook continues to appear broadly positive, but the heightened uncertainty resulting from the UK vote to leave the EU and the ensuing negative spillovers are a cause for concern. More than many other EU economies, Ireland’s medium-to long-term outlook will be affected by the nature of the future relationship between the UK and the EU, especially regarding trade, financial flows, and labor movement.

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