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Greece: Preliminary Debt Sustainability Analysis—Updated Estimates and Further Considerations

Summary: Greece continues to face a daunting fiscal consolidation challenge. After seven years of recession and a structural adjustment of 16 percent of GDP, Greece has only managed to achieve a small primary surplus in 2015, and this due to sizeable one-off factors. This is still far away from its ambitious medium-term primary surplus target of 3½ percent of GDP. Reaching this target still requires measures of some 4½ percent of GDP. Low-hanging fruit have been exhausted, and the scope for new significant measures is limited.