Summary:KEY ISSUES Context: Outperformance fading - Australia has enjoyed exceptionally strong income growth for the past two decades. But the waning resource investment boom and sharp fall in the terms of trade have brought this to a halt. A cyclical recovery is likely in the near term, but over the medium term, income growth is likely to slow to a rate in line with other advanced economies. Policy agenda: Re-energizing growth by sustaining demand through the resource boom transition - Monetary policy should remain accommodative given the sizeable output gap and subdued inflation, and stand ready to ease further should the recovery fall short of expectations and provided financial stability risks remain contained.A small surplus should remain a longer-term anchor of fiscal policy. But the planned consolidation is somewhat more frontloaded than desirable. Increasing public investment would support demand and insure against downside growth risks.
