Summary:KEY ISSUES
Outlook and risks. The economy will remain vulnerable over the medium term, with
sluggish real GDP growth, rising public debt and widening external current account
deficits. International reserves could decline to uncomfortably low levels. The financial
system would continue to be hampered by high NPLs and low capital buffers, especially
at a systemic bank. Main fiscal risks include a court decision that could lead to a larger
than expected compensation to the former owners of the nationalized companies,
weaknesses in a systemic bank, and the cost of the new public bank.
Focus of the Consultation. Discussions focused on measures that would place public
debt on a sustainable path; address weaknesses in the financial system, particularly in a
systemic bank; buttress external sector resilience; and enhance competitiveness and
inclusive growth.
Key policy advice.
? Improve the primary fiscal balance to about 4.5 percent of GDP starting in 2015. This
could be achieved mainly by allowing spending on goods and services to rise only in
line with inflation; containing the expansion in the wage bill; requiring public workers to
contribute to their pensions; and by widening the tax base and strengthening revenue
administration. Active debt management, including refinancing of expensive debt with
low-earning deposits (essentially from PetroCaribe), would support these efforts.
? Address banking sector vulnerabilities through improving capital buffers.
? Improve public financial management (PFM) to contain low-quality spending,
strengthen budget formulation, preparation, and execution, and improve the coverage
and accuracy of budget documents.
? Further improve the business environment to attract more private investment, boost
competitiveness, and enhance job-creating and inclusive growth.
Implementation of staff advice. Implementation of recent staff advice is mixed. The
breathing room provided by the debt restructuring was not used to improve the primary
fiscal balance. The authorities plan to review exemptions and zero-ratings under the GST.
