Summary:KEY ISSUES
Context. The economy is recovering gradually, helped by supportive macroeconomic
policies, favorable external conditions, and improved market confidence. This, together
with a welcome reduction in vulnerabilities, supported Hungary’s financial stability
during bouts of volatility in emerging markets over the past year. Nevertheless, external
and public debts remain high, thus making the economy susceptible to shocks; and the
country faces subdued growth prospects. The government’s strategy to address these
challenges included sizeable fiscal consolidation and unconventional measures that
increased the state’s role in the economy and shifted the burden of adjustment to
specific sectors.
Policy recommendations. Policies should aim at building buffers and comprehensively
addressing obstacles to strong, sustained growth.
? Fiscal policy. Adopt an ambitious and growth-friendly fiscal adjustment strategy to
reduce the public debt ratio sustainably and build policy space. The strategy should
rely on durable expenditure consolidation, enhanced composition of spending, and a
gradual elimination of distortionary taxes.
? Monetary policy. Stop monetary policy easing and stand ready to raise the policy
rate if market conditions warrant. A clear communication strategy will play a crucial
role in guiding market expectations. Maintain adequate reserve coverage to support
financial stability.
? Financial sector. Help restore financial intermediation by improving the banks’
operating environment, including steps to facilitate faster resolution of nonperforming
loans and to reduce the tax burden on banks. The Funding for Growth
Scheme should remain limited, targeted, and time-bound, with fiscal costs clearly
recognized.
? Structural reforms. Advance structural reforms aimed at removing labor market
bottlenecks, enhancing the business climate, and boosting productivity in the
services sectors. Limited government interference in the economy and increased
policy predictability could strengthen confidence, and foster private sector
investment and employment creation.
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