Tuesday 14 March 2000

QRA Uncertainty Addressed by New UKOOA Guidelines

The UK Offshore Operators Association (UKOOA) has published a set of guidelines giving advice on how to deal with the impact of uncertainty on Quantitative Risk Assessments (QRA).

UKOOAs Guidelines for Quantitative Risk Assessment Uncertainty, are based on the findings of a study commissioned by the Association from AEA Technology, which includes a review of QRA and uncertainty analysis practice across different industries, as well as on the offshore oil and gas sectors own experiences in recent years.

Although the document is primarily aimed at safety practitioners and risk analysts working in the offshore environment, the Guidelines could prove to be of interest to other industries. They set out what is generally regarded as good practice and complement last years publication of an Industry framework for risk related decision support which clarified the role of QRA in decision-making.

The use of QRA in safety related decision-making has become increasingly sophisticated since the goal-setting Offshore Installation Safety Case Regulations were first introduced in the UK in 1992, says Dr John Wils, UKOOAs Director of Operational and Technical Affairs. Our understanding of basic models and data representing hazards and conditions offshore has improved significantly over the past twenty years.

As a result, more weight is being given to conclusions reached through QRA processes. Yet hazards on offshore installations can be complex and they may also interact, creating a whole range of uncertainties that need to be taken into account. The new guidelines analyse the issues related to these uncertainties and in so doing help further to refine the application of QRA in the decision-making process.

The Guidelines also respond to recommendations laid out in the recent AUPEC review of the offshore safety regime, commissioned by the Health and Safety Executive (HSE), which address the challenges associated with using QRA.

UKOOAs Guidelines for Quantitative Risk Assessment Uncertainty, Issue 1 (March 2000), is available here. Price: £30 for members; £60 for non-members.

For more information, please call 020 7802 2400.