27 March 2026

Please note that the fieldwork for this Consumer Expectations Survey (CES) wave was carried out between 5 February and 3 March 2026, meaning that around 97% of the responses were recorded before the onset of the war in the Middle East on 28 February.

Compared with January 2026:

• median consumer perceptions of inflation over the past 12 months remained unchanged while median inflation expectations for the next 12 months and for three years ahead decreased slightly; median inflation expectations for five years ahead were unchanged;
• expectations for nominal income growth over the next 12 months remained unchanged, while expectations for spending growth over the next 12 months increased;
• expectations for economic growth over the next 12 months became less negative, while the expected unemployment rate in 12 months’ time decreased;
• expectations for growth in the price of homes over the next 12 months declined, while expectations for mortgage interest rates in 12 months’ time remained unchanged.

Inflation

In February, the median rate of perceived inflation over the previous 12 months remained unchanged at 3.0%. Median expectations for inflation over the next 12 months and expectations for inflation three years ahead both declined to 2.5%, from 2.6% in January, while inflation expectations for five years ahead remained unchanged at 2.3%. Uncertainty about inflation expectations over the next 12 months remained unchanged in February. Respondents in lower-income quintiles continued to report on average slightly higher inflation perceptions and short-horizon expectations than those in higher-income quintiles, a trend observed since 2023. However, the broad evolution of inflation perceptions and expectations remained closely aligned across income groups. Younger respondents (aged 18-34) continued to report lower inflation perceptions and expectations than older respondents (aged 35-54 and 55-70).

Income and consumption

Consumers’ nominal income growth expectations over the next 12 months remained unchanged in February compared to January at 1.2%. Meanwhile, perceived nominal spending growth over the previous 12 months decreased to 4.6%, from 4.9% in January. Expected nominal spending growth over the next 12 months increased to 3.5%, from 3.4% in January, with respondents in the lowest three income quintiles expecting slightly higher spending growth expectations than those in the highest two quintiles.

Economic growth and labour market

Economic growth expectations for the next 12 months became less negative, increasing to -0.9% in February, from -1.1% in January. Similarly, expectations for the unemployment rate 12 months ahead declined to 10.8% in February, from 11.0% in January. As observed in previous months, lower-income households expected the highest unemployment rate 12 months ahead (13.1%), while higher-income households expected the lowest rate (9.2%). Consumers continued to expect the future unemployment rate to be slightly higher than the perceived current unemployment rate (10.4%), suggesting a broadly stable labour market outlook.

Housing and credit access

Consumers expected the price of their home to increase by 3.6% over the next 12 months, from 3.7% in January. As in previous months, home price growth expectations in the lowest income quintile (3.9%) remained on average higher than in the highest quintile (3.3%). Expectations for mortgage interest rates over the next 12 months remained unchanged at 4.7% in February. As in previous months, lower-income households expected the highest mortgage interest rates 12 months ahead (5.5%), while higher-income households expected the lowest rates (4.2%). The net percentage of households reporting a tightening (relative to those reporting an easing) of access to credit over the previous 12 months declined in February, as did the net percentage of households expecting tighter credit conditions over the next 12 months.

The release of the CES results for March is scheduled for 28 April 2026.

For media queries, please contact: Benoit Deeg, tel.: +49 172 1683704.

Notes