What happened in April? An Israeli airstrike on 1 April against what Iran asserted was a consular facility in Syria’s capital Damascus killed at least seven Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) personnel, including senior commanders. In response, Iranian forces unleashed a barrage of over 300 drones, cruise missiles and ballistic missiles at Israel, the vast majority of which were intercepted by multilayered Israeli and allied air defences. Days later, Israel conducted a drone/missile attack on Iran’s Isfahan city, reportedly targeting a radar site near a key nuclear facility.

Why does it matter? After years of a so-called “shadow war” fought covertly and via proxies across the region, April’s hostilities mark the first ever direct military confrontation between Iran and Israel. Against the backdrop of Israel’s war in Gaza, the unprecedented exchange underscored both sides’ greater risk tolerance and willingness to engage in battle. With the rules of the game being rewritten in perilous ways, what comes next is fraught with danger for the bitter adversaries, their allies and the broader region.

What to watch in the coming weeks and months? April’s escalatory cycle appears to have subsided, but it may not be the last. Another round of direct confrontation could be triggered by one side transgressing the other’s red lines either by accident or design, such as a brazen strike that inflicts high casualties. The precedent of direct military action heightens the stakes of what had previously been indirect or undeclared exchanges, even as each side believes their respective actions to have been calibrated in nature and limited in scope. A retaliatory spiral could quickly envelop the region, prompting the U.S. to directly enter the fray and Iran’s non-state allies to become even more belligerent.

An expansion of Israel’s war in Gaza – approaching its eighth month – greatly increases the possibility of a catastrophic scenario engulfing the Middle East. Famine in Gaza’s north is likely to be the world’s worst, relative to population size, of the past few decades and may spread throughout the enclave. A threatened Israeli ground invasion of Rafah could exacerbate the suffering by killing or again displacing a huge proportion of the more than one million Palestinians who have sought refuge there. Iran or Iran-aligned groups in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq and Yemen may respond with intensified attacks on Israel or U.S. forces.

Meanwhile, Tehran’s nuclear program is closer than ever to having the capacity of producing a weapon, and is operating under limited international oversight. Having failed to fend off Israeli attacks through its regional allies and use of conventional weapons, Tehran might calculate that the Islamic Republic’s survival requires obtaining the ultimate deterrent. Yet a detected move toward weaponisation could prompt U.S. and/or Israeli military action to prevent the Islamic Republic from successfully crossing the nuclear threshold. 

What should be done? To temper the risks of uncontrollable escalation, Israel should agree to an immediate and permanent ceasefire in Gaza and desist from provocative strikes on Iran-linked targets. Tehran should restrain its partner militias from continuing or even stepping up their own attacks against Israeli/U.S. targets. The U.S. should calibrate its response – as well as Israel’s – with appropriate prudence, steering clear of escalatory reactions. Washington and Tehran would be wise to look for opportunities to defuse tensions, aiming to return to the pre-Gaza war lull in hostilities. That could provide sufficient diplomatic headroom for engagement on other pressing issues, like Iran’s nuclear program.