Francesco La Camera, Director-General of IRENA, said: “In the wake of the historic UAE Consensus on tripling renewables at COP28, these capacity additions – despite setting a new record – clearly indicate that achieving the target is far from guaranteed. As the custodian agency, IRENA monitors related progress across key indicators every year. Our data confirms that progress continues to fall short, and the energy transition remains off track. We urgently need a systemic shift away from fossil fuels to course-correct and keep the tripling goal within reach".

Achieving the tripling target is far from assured as an additional 7.2 terawatts (TW) of renewable power would need to be deployed to reach the required 11 TW by 2030. However, current projections indicate the target will remain out of reach without urgent policy intervention. G20 nations, for example, must grow their renewable capacity from under 3 TW in 2022 to 9.4 TW by 2030, accounting for over 80% of the global total.

Accelerated investments in infrastructure and system operations (e.g. power grids, storage), revised policies and regulations (e.g. power market design and streamlined permitting), measures to fortify supply chains and cultivate requisite skills, and substantial increases in investments – including public funds facilitated through international collaboration – are imperative.

Despite considerable renewable potential, developing countries have received disproportionately low levels of investment. Although energy transition related investments have reached a record high, exceeding USD 2 trillion in 2023, emerging markets and developing economies accounted for just over half of global investments. 120 developing nations attracted only 15% of global renewable investment, with Sub-Saharan Africa receiving less than 1.5%, despite being home to the highest share of energy-deprived populations.

In contrast, fossil fuels received USD 1.3 trillion in subsidies in 2022, equivalent to the annual investment required in renewable generation capacity to achieve a threefold increase by 2030. A key aspect of IRENA’s 1.5^°C Scenario is that the increase in renewable energy use must be coupled with a corresponding decline in fossil fuel reliance. Both aspects are lagging. G20 members alone disbursed a record USD 1.4 trillion in public funds to bolster fossil fuels in 2022, directly contradicting the commitment made at COP28 to transition away from fossil fuels.

Greater international cooperation will be indispensable to ensure financial flows to the Global South and uphold the tripling pledge. Countries in Sub-Saharan Africa face some of the world's highest finance costs, underscoring the need for enhanced international collaboration, including the involvement of multilateral development banks and an expanded role for public finance.

Strategic use of public finance is paramount to attract investment at scale and deliver an inclusive energy transition that yields socio-economic benefits for all. This requires structural reforms, including within multilateral finance mechanisms, to effectively support the energy transition in developing countries.

Read the brief: Tracking COP28 outcomes: Tripling renewable power capacity by 2030.

Read the report: World Energy Transitions Outlook 2023: 1.5°C Pathway.

Find out more about tracking energy transition progress here.