What happened in October? Hamas on 7 October launched an unprecedented multi-pronged offensive into southern Israel, killing around 1,400 Israelis – the largest number of fatalities in Israel’s history – and capturing at least 200 hostages, including babies, women and elderly people. Hamas has continued firing rockets into Israel. Israel has responded with its most intense, destructive and indiscriminate bombardment of Gaza ever, which has killed at least 9,000 Palestinians, including over 3,700 children.

Why does it matter? If Israel’s response continues along the present course, it will not only raze Gaza, kill thousands more Palestinians and compound the humanitarian catastrophe facing 2.3 million people, but it risks igniting a regional conflagration that would pose a far graver danger to Israel itself.

What to watch in the coming weeks? Questions remain about how and to what end Israel will pursue its campaign in Gaza. Smashing Hamas’s military capabilities through a ground invasion is likely to be a drawn-out, bloody affair with no guarantee of success or vision for what would come next. If Israel continues to thwart the delivery of humanitarian aid to Gaza, including especially fuel, disease and starvation will stalk those who survive the relentless bombardment.

Deadly clashes between Israeli forces and Hizbollah on Israel’s northern border could escalate in intensity and frequency. The pair may be a single, bloody attack away from a large-scale confrontation. Alternatively, Hizbollah might feel compelled to intervene to protect its partner Hamas once an Israeli invasion threatens to destroy the group.

Another flashpoint is in the West Bank, where Israeli settler militias have killed Palestinians in increasing numbers since 7 October. Palestinians may resort to greater protests and resistance, to which Israel could respond disproportionately with far-reaching consequences for all the occupied Palestinian territories.

What should be done? Neither the Gaza war nor the Israeli-Palestinian conflict writ large has a military solution. The current crisis serves to underline the pressing need for a return to a viable peace process that is inclusive of the main stakeholders.

The best short-term option is for the U.S. and its allies to press Israel to pause the bombardment, honour its pledge to allow humanitarian access to Gaza and lay out conditions for a permanent ceasefire, including for Gaza’s reconstruction. Hamas and Palestinian militants, in turn, would end rocket fire from Gaza, release all hostages and cede a significant level of their power in the Strip.

Meanwhile, even as Western countries work to stop the war from spreading, they might also plant the seeds for discussions about broader regional de-escalation, which will be necessary for lasting peace and security.