- Technical & Analytical Market Commentary -

January 24, 2011 (FinancialWire) (The Small Cap News Leader http://www.financialwire.net/) (Investrend Information Syndicate) (By Henry Weingarten) — We are not banking on the economy turning a corner and generating a robust U.S. recovery in 2011. Since late fall, we have been awaiting a Q1, 2011, market sell signal, circa January 20th, which is seemingly in progress, and we expect positional shorts to be “safe” before February 1st.

Fundamentally, we see a two-track U.S. economy, as well as a two-track world economy with few “trickle down” benefits. Also, as we forecasted, China is slowing and we expect this to continue into midyear, at least.

Technically, our trading targets are, first, the December 31, 2010, market close of SPX at 1257. Additional trading targets are available by contacting us via the “Resource Note” link provided (below).

Our proprietary charts show that March 28th will demark the end of the recent market cycle.  For April, 2011, we project a new, two-part market marker. Exactly what that April marker will entail is yet to be determined.  However, until then, we feel markets have significantly more downside risk than upside potential.

If markets fail to rally on “good news”, then we expect market momentum to shift as more and more investors find reasons to sell.

Finally, here is a response to one of our “Wall Street Next Week” readers:

Reader: “Barring an outlier event, the upside target in the S&P 500 this year could be the 1400s or higher (1500 next year?). Technical reversal patterns yesterday now define a top. Will we correct to the 50 day moving average (SPX at 1245), could we go further to the 200 day moving average (SPX at 1160)? Or, will we simply pause, refresh and extend the rally? For now, I'm leaning short-term bearish until evidence suggests otherwise.” — Mark Lebovitz, editor, VR Platinum Newsletter

Weingarten: We still hold our intermediate SPX 1144 target (P1 1225 P2 1180). As for your upside, I can’t bend my head so far up (yet).

=========

The FirstAlert(tm) “Money Index” is an indicator of the depth of market direction or indirection. While not always including the same stocks, the combined NYSE, AMEX and NASDAQ 25 most actives and combined NYSE, AMEX and NASDAQ greatest percentage losers and greatest percentage winners (weighted against pure monetary loss/gain) indicate the direction in which the mass of money is flowing, as well as the general focus of the market. Go to http://www.financialwire.net/?s=frstlrtmnydx for today’s NYSE-AMEX-NASDAQ summaries.

The FirstAlert(tm) Morning Digest lists economics calendar events, earnings announcements, financial community conferences, company presentations and more. Go to http://www.financialwire.net/?s=frstlrtrlts+rngsgnrrngs for all the most recent FirstAlert(tm) Digest summaries.

=========

Resource Note: “Wall Street Next Week” (Courtesy of The Astrologers Fund); Go to http://www.investrend.com/a-fund for more information.

=========

Exchange Links: PowerShares QQQ Trust ETF (QQQQ – NASDAQ) / SPDR S&P 500 Trust ETF (SPY – AMEX) / SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA – AMEX)

==========

**FirstAlert(tm) is underwritten by Investrend Communications. Today’s Investrend featured partner is Marshal Shichtman & Associates, P.C. –  Mr. Marshal Shichtman has served as council for Investrend Communications in various capacities since 2001. Mr. Shichtman is now collaborating with Investrend to provide a unique independent equity research product, which includes a specialized component particularly focused on assistance in best practices, filings, reporting and good governance. Go to http://www.investrend.com/shichtman for more information and a preferred introduction to Mr. Shichtman.

==========

FirstAlert(tm), published exclusively by FinancialWire(tm), was created by Gayle Essary, founder of Investrend Communications, Inc., parent of Investrend Information. The opinions expressed in FirstAlert(tm) do not necessarily reflect the opinions of Investrend or of FinancialWire(tm).

FinancialWire(tm) is committed to serving the financial community through true journalism and providing relevant resources to investors. Standards-based, independent equity research on numerous public companies is available through the Investrend Research Syndicate (http://www.investrend.com/reports) written by FIRST Research Consortium (http://www.investrend.com/FIRST) member-providers. Real-time, streaming research for companies and funds mentioned in FinancialWire(tm) news is available via the Investrend Research Syndicate, courtesy of Stock Smart (at http://investrend.stocksmart.com). Free annual reports and company filings for companies mentioned in the news are available through the Investrend Information Syndicate (at http://investrend.ar.wilink.com/?level=279). FinancialWire(tm), in cooperation with the Investrend Broadcast Syndicate, also provides complete, daily conference call and webcast schedules as a service to shareholders and investors via the FirstAlert(tm) Network’s “FirstAlert(tm) Daily” webpage (at http://www.financialwire.net/news-alerts/).

FinancialWire(tm) is a fully independent, proprietary news wire service. FinancialWire(tm) is not a press release service, and receives no compensation for its news, opinions or distributions. Further disclosure is at the FinancialWire(tm) website at http://www.financialwire.net/disclosures.php and http://www.financialwire.net/2010/04/23/safe-harbor/). Additional resources for investors are also accessible via the FinancialWire(tm) website (at http://www.financialwire.net/2010/04/23/investor-resources/). Contact FinancialWire(tm) directly via inquiries@financialwire.net.

=========

All of FinancialWire(tm)’s daily news offering is accessible via the FinancialWire(tm) website (at http://www.financialwire.net/). In addition, some premium content — normally available to subscribers only — is now being posted in its entirety, courtesy of Investrend Syndications (at http://www.investrend.com).

=========

Copyright © MMXI, FinancialWire(tm); All rights reserved.

[ftrdnwswnd] [ssryrsyr] [frstlrtrlts] [frstlrtdlycmmt]  [cmmtry] [mrktqr] [tchnlf] [wngrtntrby] [anlytcl] [exctrdfnd] [idxsxdi] [bsdarrgnmnt] [strlgrsfnd]