- Socio-Political Commentary -

November 18, 2010 (FinancialWire) (By “The Political Prophet”) (Entire, original November 16th post at http://www.investrendsyndications.net/12-content/manl/prophet/2010/11/php/16.php) — Note: Going on the record before the election results are known is our responsibility. The pre-election column for the 2010 midterms is available via Investrend Syndications (at http://www.investrendsyndications.net/12-content/manl/prophet/2010/11/php/02.php). Interpreting election results and their meaning the next few days is not worthwhile because so much remains unknown at that time. Today, ten days after the historic midterm elections of 2010, we begin to provide our analysis exclusively for our readers. The presidential campaign for 2012 is officially underway and, as data becomes available from 2010 and beyond, we will continue our analysis for you. For the present…

We Predict that Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) will be able to muster more  votes in the Senate than Majority Leader Harry Reid on many issues. Republican gains and the close calls recently experienced by some Democrats plus the exposure for 23  Democrats whose terms will be up in 2012 will provide great motivation for some of the most vulnerable  to side with Republicans on “survival” issues. McConnell, a brilliant strategist who is prone to clumsy rhetoric with his media speak, must differentiate “liberal Democrats” in the Senate from the others to encourage a new comfort level among those who are likely to be “available” for occasional votes with the Republicans. As a bonus benefit, the success of this effort will probably motivate President Obama to do some things which ultimately prove to be counterproductive to his interests. Republican strategists should remain mindful that Obama’s ego is one of his major weaknesses and that it often causes predictable reactions.

We Predict that President Obama will talk about “co-operation” but, in fact, will usually refuse to negotiate in good faith with Congressional Republicans on most domestic issues. He will also refuse to compromise with any who dare oppose his plans including Senators, Governors and Members of the House from his own party. His lack of experience, ego and his immaturity will compel him to choose conflict over conciliation.

We Predict that, contrary to the musings of some pretenders in the media who don’t understand how politics works, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton will not challenge President Obama for the nomination. Even if his approval rating has not yet bottomed out, his personal popularity plummets and one third of the Democrats, according to Pew’s post election survey, want someone to challenge him for the nomination, it will not happen. Anyone who takes or attempts to take the Democratic Party’s  nomination away from the nation’s first Black President enters a “loose-loose” role. The nomination, if won away, would be worthless when millions of Black voters desert the party on the day of the general election. If Secretary Clinton (or anyone else) challenged President Obama and failed, her future would probably be very bleak indeed.  We will offer additional observations on the future of the Democratic Party “post Obama” in a subsequent report.

We Predict that any serious attempt by the Obama Administration to circumvent the Congress via executive order or other fiat will cause an exceptionally strong reaction on Capitol Hill by Republicans. They will be joined by enough Congressional Democrats to surprise the White House. It is probable that some Cabinet Members, “Czars” and the President himself will have to be aggressively educated about the separation of powers doctrine over the course of the next two years. Our Nation may actually have to face a constitutional crisis forced by a childish President when we should be devoting our resources to the job creation effort and to the spending/deficit reduction crisis.

We Predict that Republicans and Tea Party leaders will work together on candidate recruitment to challenge Democrats for the 2012 Congressional elections. The midterm elections proved, once again, the oldest “rule” in practical politics… “You can’t beat somebody with nobody.” The GOP probably lost four or more seats and thus potential control of the upper chamber because their candidates were arguably not as strong as they should have been.  While the California campaign could have been more effective, that race,  both New York races and the Washington State race may have been beyond reach because of the partisan makeup of the states at this time. The Republican candidates in Florida (open seat) and Wisconsin (Incumbent Democrat) are good examples of the type of candidate who will maximize opportunities for the GOP. It is not enough in most states simply to be “Conservative enough” because the candidate must also be credible for the office. A man or woman the caliber of Marco Rubio (Florida) or Ron Johnson (Wisconsin) is electable whereas some in 2010 simply were not. Credibility and competence meld quite well with “Tea Party” credentials and conservative bona fides but the whole package is what eventually determines election outcomes. Obviously, party regulars and “Tea Party” advocates may come to a parting of the ways when efforts are made to “purify” the GOP’s existing officeholders but those numbers will be much smaller than the gains that can be secured with victories that replace Democrats with Republicans.

We Predict that the final shape of the tax deal will be a permanent extension for “middle class” tax cuts plus a re-definition of “wealthy” to something over one million dollars and/or an extension to a point beyond Obama’s maximum time in office. It is obvious that playing the class warfare card will always be more important to him than job creation. Giving tax rate predictability to those who make the decisions to hire and/or who provide the capital so others can hire is vital to recovery but is ideologically offensive to Obama so we dare not risk the jobs of Americans to his political whims. If the extension has to be less than permanent, Congress should at least make sure that renewal can’t become an issue while he may still be in office which also happens to meet the planning needs of most businesses to schedule growth and hiring. Speaker Pelosi wants to pass a tax increase on the families making more than $250,000 but she didn’t have the votes before the election and she has more scared Democrats to deal with now than she did then but she says she will draw a line in the sand on this issue during the lame duck session. Good. The Republicans can call on Obama to get her under control and, if he can’t, everyone’s taxes will go up January 1, 2011 and by the end of the month, Republicans can pass new tax cuts for everyone.

We Predict that Congressional “Earmarks” will be eliminated by the Republican majority (plus some scared Democrats) in the House and by a similar coalition in the Senate even though the Democrats still control that body. GOP Leader, Mitch McConnell, has “seen the light” and now publicly supports the ban. His earlier protestations to the contrary, “Earmarks” have evolved into a highly specialized form of incumbent campaign advantage involving fundraising (and occasional corruption) plus favorable publicity projects and endless opportunities for Members of Congress to do special favors for their supporters. They are systematically used as “sweeteners” to attract Congressional votes for spending legislation that might otherwise fail or at least be trimmed back.

We Predict that Chicago Mayor, Richard Dailey, will soon surface as a new member of the Obama administration. Dailey kindly stepped aside so Obama’s Chief of Staff, Rahm Emanuel, could run for his post. Our tax dollars will be used to finance the payoff or one of Obama’s wealthy political pals will put him on the payroll in return for a payback of a different type. Chicago politicians, whether Dailey or Blagojevich don’t do favors for free.

We Predict that New York Times syndicated columnist, Maureen Dowd, will be eclipsed by her brother, Kevin who writes equally well and who makes much more sense because he relies on facts and logic plus he understands the value of freedom.

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Reporters tell us what happened yesterday. Pollsters tell us what is happening today. THE POLITICAL PROPHET® tells us what is likely to happen tomorrow. An elite team of political professionals with presidential campaign strategy experience provides analytical predictions that tend to be more usable than offerings from those who have never been “in the arena.” To assure objectivity, team members are not involved with active candidates.

The Political Prophet® and all derivatives of The Political Prophet® in any form are registered trademarks of The Political Prophet® and are subject to proprietary trademark, intellectual property and copyright Laws. Copyright ©, The Political Prophet®, All rights reserved.

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