- Futures & Forex Commentary -

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May 17, 2010 (FinancialWire) (Investrend Information Syndicate) (Via Brewer Futures Group) — Early trading today has the ProShares Ultra Gold ETF (NYSE: UGL) up by about 0.11% on volume of 88,800 shares, the SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD) is up by about 0.06% on volume of 9.6 million shares, the Market Vectors Agribusiness ETF (NYSE: MOO) is down by about 0.28% on volume of 145,000 shares and the iPath Goldman Sachs Crude Oil ETF (NYSE: OIL) is down by about 2.25% on volume of 601,200 shares.

Also in early trading today has the PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund (NYSE: UUP) up 0.39% on volume of 1.1 million shares, while the PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bearish Fund (NYSE: UDN) is down 0.46% on volume of 172,100 shares.

FinancialWire(tm) contributor, Brewer Investment Group, provides us with some related perspective and insight regarding the outlook for the currency markets:

The plunging Euro and British Pound helped drive traders out of risky assets early Sunday night sending U.S. equity markets lower. Shortly before the U.S. Forex opening, the recovery in both of these currencies from their lows has helped to push stocks higher.

Stocks took most of its cues from the Euro on Sunday night as this currency broke through the so-called “Lehman Brothers Low” at 1.2329. At the time this low was made in 2008, the world was going through a credit crisis. Nonetheless, a break through this level may lead to a psychological breakdown in the equities as it will mean that the global economy is well on its way to repeating the same mistakes which triggered the start of the sell-off in late 2008 and early 2009.

The short-term main range in the June E-mini S&P 500 is 1056.00 to 1174.75. The retracement zone inside this range is 1115.50 to 1101.50. Last night’s break came close to but did not test this zone which means that despite the overnight comeback, there is still downside potential. The downside target on the June E-mini NASDAQ chart is 1856.00 to 1826.50. Watch for a potential test of 10378 to 10251 in the June E-mini Dow.

With equity prices falling and fear spreading across Europe, traders took a little protection in the June Treasury markets Sunday night, but this market turned lower once the Euro rebounded off its low and stocks turned positive. The short-term upside target in this contract is 122’05 to 122’23. Last night the test of the upper end of this range was met with selling pressure, leading to the call for a lower opening this morning.

The falling Euro and the strong Dollar did not trigger a breakout rally in June Gold last night as expected. This came as a surprise, but it could be related to margin calls in the equity markets. For weeks, gold has become the safe haven currency. During the Greece financial crisis, money was flooding into gold, driving it to an all-time high. At this time, Gold is barely holding onto its gains which could be a reflection of margin calls hitting stock traders. Traders often begin liquidating speculative positions to meet margin calls in investments.

Technically, June Gold made a daily closing price reversal top at $1249.70. Although it doesn’t appear that the trend is getting ready to turn down, this pattern may trigger a correction to $1203.00 to $1191.90.

June Crude Oil continued lower overnight, breaking through the February bottom at 70.75. Bearish traders are becoming more confident that the problems in the Euro Zone are going to slow down demand for crude oil. Last week’s Energy Information Administration report also suggested that rising inventories are contributing to the current weakness. Oversold conditions may lead to a short-covering rally this morning, but it is going to take a lot to turn the main trend back to up.

The June Euro touched its lowest level since 2006 overnight as investors continued to pull out of the currency on the fear that political and economic problems would lead to a collapse of the Euro Zone economy. Last night’s action took out the so-called “Lehman Brothers Low at 1.2329 triggering stops and attracting fresh selling pressure. This support was established at the height of the global credit crisis and marks a time when a global financial disaster was avoided.

Although some feel that the world’s financial system is better prepared for a credit shock than it was back in 2008, the break through this level is likely to have psychological ramifications as well as symbolic meaning. It will be used as a benchmark among global investors who will question whether the world has learned anything following one of the greatest financial meltdown’s in history.

Besides the risk of sovereign debt default, investors are now becoming concerned about the lack of activity and the inaction from the European governments. Once again investors are asking the question “where is the union in the European Union”.

The inability to stop the slide in the Euro by pumping $1 trillion into the economy with basically debt on top of debt has convinced investors that the EU has and had no plan to prevent the kind of currency slaughter taking place at this time. Investors have grown weary of the reactive moves by the governments and want to see more proactive action.

From the start investors have been asking for clarity from the EU. No one wants to see a currency collapse, but without a firm plan in place investors have had no options to consider except to sell the Euro.

At this time emotions are running high in the Euro Zone as it is becoming clearer that the financial cuts necessary to make Europe financially sound will have huge global ramifications. Even former Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker has a gloomy outlook for the situation. Last Thursday during a stop in London he said “You have the great problem of a potential disintegration of the Euro. The essential element of discipline in economic policy and in fiscal policy that was hoped for has so far not been rewarded in some countries.”

As support continues to erode for the Euro discussions will increase as to how it will survive when there continues to be such a huge disparity between those countries that have and those nations that have not.

Source: Courtesy of Brewer Futures Group; For more information, content and/or a preferred introduction to Brewer Investment Group, LLC and/or Brewer Futures Group, LLC, contact Investrend Communications via resources@investrend.com with “Brewer” in the subject line.

Streaming Research for companies and funds mentioned in FinancialWire(tm) news is available via the Investrend Research Syndicate, courtesy of Stock Smart (at http://investrend.stocksmart.com/ss/html/hpcompany.html).

Brewer Futures Group advises that futures and options trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for every investor. The valuation of futures and options may fluctuate, and, as a result, clients may lose more than their original investment. The impact of seasonal and geopolitical events is already factored into market prices. Prices in the underlying cash or physical markets do not necessarily move in tandem with futures and options prices. In no event should the content of this correspondence be construed as an express or implied promise, guarantee or implication by or from Brewer Futures Group, LLC, Brewer Investment Group, LLC, or their subsidiaries and affiliates that you will profit or that losses can or will be limited in any manner whatsoever. Loss-limiting strategies such as stop loss orders may not be effective because market conditions may make it impossible to execute such orders. Likewise, strategies using combinations of options and/or futures positions such as "spread" or "straddle" trades may be just as risky as simple long and short positions. Past results are no indication of future performance. Information provided in the above article is intended solely for informational purposes and is obtained from sources believed to be reliable. Information is in no way guaranteed. No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are attempted. For more information, content and/or a preferred introduction to Brewer Investment Group, LLC and/or Brewer Futures Group, LLC, contact Investrend Communications via resources@investrend.com with “Brewer” in the subject line.

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