- Forex Commentary -

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May 11, 2010 (FinancialWire) (Investrend Information Syndicate) (Via Brewer Investment Group) (Overnight, May 10, 2010, Report) — Yesterday the PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund (NYSE: UUP) closed down 0.24% on volume of 7.8 million shares, while the PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bearish Fund (NYSE: UDN) closed up 0.23% on volume of 413,400 shares. FinancialWire(tm) contributor, Brewer Investment Group, provides us with some related perspective and insight regarding the outlook for the currency markets:

The Euro finished higher but finished well off its Monday high. This was expected since the announcement by the European Union to inject close to a trillion Dollars into the Euro Zone financial and economic system triggered a short-covering rally but failed to attract new buying.

Traders are now looking at the move by the EU as a short-term fix to a long-term problem. The arrangement by the EU looks more like a panic move triggered by pressure from the global economic community. The size of the aid package itself was larger than any bailouts previously concocted by other central banks, including the U.S. Federal Reserve.

The very size of the amount of money proposed by the EU and the subsequent reaction by the Euro brings into question whether the aid proposal is designed to save the Euro as a currency or increase the Euro’s value. Although short-covering helped drive the market higher initially, the way the Euro finished suggests that short-traders are still concerned about the underlying major problems in the Euro Zone.

While it is clear that the short-term fix proposed by the EU to buy the government debt of Portugal, Spain and Greece is supportive at this time, it isn’t clear what this aggressive proposal will do for the Euro region over the long-term.

The $1 Trillion rescue plan was able to move the Euro about 2% overnight, but it failed to do anything to address the irresponsible deficit spending habits of Portugal, Spain and Greece and any other peripheral Euro Zone nations which may face similar issues later on. This fact further supports the thought that the EU powers are not going to get control of the game until they propose and implement a plan that will help them wrestle control of the Euro away from the hedge funds.

The lack of clarity by the European Union has been a major concern for investors throughout the entire Greek episode. This weekend’s proposal has triggered a similar response. Sure it is easy to see the short-term ramifications, but what about the long-run? Doubts also are beginning to surface about the execution of the plan. This sets up the Euro for a period of volatile trading and most likely another test of the recent low.

Technically, the Euro stopped rallying after slightly overshooting a .618 retracement level at 1.3038. With the Euro bottoming last week at 1.2518 and topping this morning at 1.3093, traders should look for a pull-back into the 1.2805 to 1.2738 range. If the Euro is going to move higher then fresh buyers will step in at this zone. A failure to do so will drive the market to new lows.

The action by the EU sets up a classic battle between the governments of Europe and the hedge funds. Although the EU made a move which caught the markets by surprise overnight, the hedge funds still seem to be calling the shots. The battle lines have been drawn at 1.2805 to 1.2738. Investors should know in a day or two whether the EU proposal will be given the benefit of the doubt or if it will go away with barely a whimper.

Source: Courtesy of Brewer Investment Group, LLC; For more information, content and/or a preferred introduction to Brewer Investment Group, LLC and/or Brewer Futures Group, LLC, contact Investrend Communications via resources@investrend.com with “Brewer” in the subject line.

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Brewer Investment Group, LLC, advises that futures and options trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for every investor. The valuation of futures and options may fluctuate, and, as a result, clients may lose more than their original investment. The impact of seasonal and geopolitical events is already factored into market prices. Prices in the underlying cash or physical markets do not necessarily move in tandem with futures and options prices. In no event should the content of this correspondence be construed as an express or implied promise, guarantee or implication by or from Brewer Futures Group, LLC, Brewer Investment Group, LLC, or their subsidiaries and affiliates that you will profit or that losses can or will be limited in any manner whatsoever. Loss-limiting strategies such as stop loss orders may not be effective because market conditions may make it impossible to execute such orders. Likewise, strategies using combinations of options and/or futures positions such as "spread" or "straddle" trades may be just as risky as simple long and short positions. Past results are no indication of future performance. Information provided in the above article is intended solely for informational purposes and is obtained from sources believed to be reliable. Information is in no way guaranteed. No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are attempted. For more information, content and/or a preferred introduction to Brewer Investment Group, LLC and/or Brewer Futures Group, LLC, contact Investrend Communications via resources@investrend.com with “Brewer” in the subject line.

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