- Socio-Political Commentary -

Editor’s Note: Socio-political events and developments have a direct impact on the market. In the interest of providing shareholders and investors with a broad spectrum of information in regard to such potentially impactful occurrences, FinancialWire(tm) contributor, “The Political Prophet”®, offers advanced insight with potential ramifications for virtually the entire market spectrum, perhaps best represented by bellwether-type ETFs such as the Health Care Select Sector SPDR ETF (NYSE: XLV), the Market Vectors Agribusiness ETF (NYSE: MOO), the SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD), the iPath Goldman Sachs Crude Oil ETF (NYSE: OIL), the iShares Dow Jones US Real Estate ETF (NYSE: IYR), the PowerShares Global Progressive Transportation Portfolio ETF (NASDAQ: PTRP), the Claymore U.S. Capital Markets Bond ETF (NYSE: UBD), the Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF (NYSE: XLK), the Industrial Select Sector SPDR ETF (NYSE: XLI) and the PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund (NYSE: UUP), to name just a few.

Also, for the record, this submission from “The Political Prophet”® came to us a couple of weeks ago, on April 13th. We decided to let things develop a bit further before publishing the article, since, as usual, The Prophet was well ahead of the curve:

The ongoing kerfuffle at the RNC with Chairman Steele and his staffers brings back memories of an earlier time with somewhat similar circumstances. The Political Prophet® remembers when then-Senator Bob Dole (R-Kansas) tricked President Richard Nixon into naming him to the RNC chairmanship. Dole came out of a White House meeting with the President and publicly announced that he had been chosen to chair the committee. Reliable observers said privately that no such thing had happened but that Nixon did not want to publicly repudiate Dole’s claim because the Kansas senator had become the President’s most vocal defender and advocate in the Senate. Fellow Republican, Hugh Scott from Pennsylvania who was certainly no friend of the President was the top man at that time. Not one to be easily sandbagged, the President and his senior political advisors decided they would let Dole take the Chairmanship but in name only. All financial and operating authority was stripped from the office of the Chair and, out of the entire staff of RNC professionals, Dole had hire/fire authority over only one secretary, whose name was Judy, and that was the extent of his power. Among those “in the know” he was something of a joke because he had been so thoroughly neutered by the President.

The division of responsibility between the role of the spokesperson and the actual leadership of the Committee could be a viable solution for the current crisis at the RNC. Chairman Steel has made serious mistakes both as the spokesman and in his leadership role so keeping him in either position may not be best and if he is replaced it might be the perfect time to introduce new systems along with new personalities.

The Political Prophet® predicts that Steel will be off to prepare for another campaign in Maryland before long and members of the RNC will be looking for options. Three high profile National Republican leaders will undoubtedly be discussed. They are; Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich and Sarah Palin. Some will argue that none of these prospective candidates will ever make it to the White House and their highest and best calling would be today’s Chairmanship. Any one of them could make the office much more than it has been in many years. They are top tier spokespersons and also have real track records as leaders so split responsibilities might not be called for. Several former Chairs including Ed Gillespie would be welcomed by many as the leadership guys to get things done and there may be some surprise “individuals of interest” for one of the special roles if the members of the National Committee opt for the divided responsibility approach. For example, those searching for a fresh young face that is articulate, attractive and capable of being interviewed without gaffs on the big stage, could recruit Dana Perino the former White House Press Secretary who would be an excellent spokesperson and would provide a new, young face for the party.

Under most circumstances, the spokesperson effort by the Chair of the Party Committee has only nominal impact on election outcomes. When the Party is completely out of power, as it is now however, the National Chairman’s public presence assumes an importance that does not occur when there is a high ranking elected official to assume that role. If National Committee members could get one of the top tier leaders to forego a run for the Presidential nomination to assume the Chairmanship, he/she would be able to gain a much higher level of co-operation from the contenders for fundraising and other party building efforts. Opportunities for other Presidential hopefuls to gain new levels of prominence are also more likely if the Chairman is not contending for the nomination and The Political Prophet® currently believes that the strongest potential nominee is not among the three  most often mentioned prospects. Our prediction will come later so stay tuned.

Reporters tell us what happened yesterday. Pollsters tell us what’s happening today. The Political Prophet® — predictions based on sophisticated analysis — tell us what is likely to happen tomorrow. These forecasts are made by an elite team of professionals who have political strategy experience at the Presidential level. Team members are not currently representing candidates, bringing objectivity as well as expertise to their predictions.

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