- Analytical Commentary -

March 30, 2010 (FinancialWire) (By Frank Kollar) — Shares of ISHARES Barclays 20+ Yr Treas (NYSE: TLT) have reached three new correction lows, over three months, in trading for 2010. Each new low has been lower than the previous one. TLT could break even lower.

With share prices at lows that have held all declines since October 2007, TLT is acting like it will push below those lows head even lower.

The $88 level has acted as strong resistance for almost four years. But share prices declined to $88.76 in January, to $88.51 in February and then to $88.31 on Monday, March 29. Steadily lower intra-day and correction lows.

Support continues to hold, but how many times can the same level sustain share prices? This week will likely give us the answer.

A break and close below $88.00 a share could result in a wave of lower lows over coming weeks. At the same time, TLT has rallied from this level many times over several years, so a bullish reversal could result in a nice trade to the upside.

Either way, we would not touch these shares until they make a decisive move one way or the other.

(Disclosure) The Fibtimer.com (http://www.fibtimer.com) ETF Timing Strategy holds a position in TLT.

Frank Kollar has been timing the financial markets since 1982, with online service since 1996. He is a dedicated trend timer and his strategies exited the markets before the crash in 1987 as well as the bear market in 2000 through 2002. During the 2000-2002 and 2008 bear markets, his bearish positions resulted in gains exceeding 100 percent, all achieved by trading trends.

Kollar’s research has shown that the financial markets are in tradable trends approximately 80 percent of the time. FibTimer strategies define trends and trade them in both advancing and declining markets. Caring nothing about what newscasters say or what the latest economic indicator predicts, trends are where the profits are, and that is where FibTimer is.

Kollar is editor and chief analyst at FibTimer.com (http://www.fibtimer.com) which offers market timing strategies for S&P and Nasdaq index fund traders, as well as bond, gold, small cap, sector, ETF and stock trading strategies.

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