- Analytical Commentary -

March 23, 2010 (FinancialWire) (By Frank Kollar) — Shares of JC Penny Inc. (NYSE: JCP) continue their march higher since they bottomed on February 5, 2010 after correcting some 35% from October through early February.

JC Penney has a long way to go to again reach their early 2007 highs above $85 a share. With bear market losses of 87%, JC Penney suffered much larger losses than the broad market did.

But JC Penney tends to trend well for several months at a time and this stock is again in a well defined trend.

After reversing in early February, JC Penney has climbed steadily and closed on Monday just below its 61.8% retracement level, at $31.95, for the October to February decline.

The odds of surpassing this level are good. Monday’s rally in shares of JC Penney constitutes a bullish outside trend continuation day, with lower lows, higher highs and also a higher close than the prior day.

Considering this stock’s tendency to trend, we look for a close above the 61.8% level shortly and then a run to the prior October closing high at $36.81.

Disclosure: The Fibtimer.com (http://www.fibtimer.com) Stock Timing Strategy holds a position in JC Penney.

Frank Kollar has been timing the financial markets since 1982, with online service since 1996. He is a dedicated trend timer and his strategies exited the markets before the crash in 1987 as well as the bear market in 2000 through 2002. During the 2000-2002 and 2008 bear markets, his bearish positions resulted in gains exceeding 100 percent, all achieved by trading trends.

Kollar’s research has shown that the financial markets are in tradable trends approximately 80 percent of the time. FibTimer strategies define trends and trade them in both advancing and declining markets. Caring nothing about what newscasters say or what the latest economic indicator predicts, trends are where the profits are, and that is where FibTimer is.

Kollar is editor and chief analyst at FibTimer.com (http://www.fibtimer.com) which offers market timing strategies for S&P and Nasdaq index fund traders, as well as bond, gold, small cap, sector, ETF and stock trading strategies.

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