- Analytical Commentary -

March 10, 2009 (FinancialWire) (By Frank Kollar) — Shares of the ETF Ishares Lehman 20 Year (NYSE: TLT) have traded sideways in 2010 after taking huge declines in 2009. TLT is again approaching a critical support level.

That critical level is at about $88 a share. It has stopped all declines in the last two years.

TLT seems to be constantly testing it of late with early January and late February declines that all reversed at the $88 level.

TLT is again nearing $88, closing on Tuesday March 9 at $89.82 after two weeks of declines from the $92 level.

The odds favor TLT reversing again from this support level and rallying, though of late the $92 level has stopped each attempt at moving higher so there is not much upside to be expected.

Importantly, a decisive close below support would be a huge break down for shares of TLT and should it occur, shares could drop into the mid to low $80s quickly.

The Fibtimer.com (http://www.fibtimer.com) ETF Timing Strategy holds a position in TLT.

Frank Kollar has been timing the financial markets since 1982, with online service since 1996. He is a dedicated trend timer and his strategies exited the markets before the crash in 1987 as well as the bear market in 2000 through 2002. During the 2000-2002 and 2008 bear markets, his bearish positions resulted in gains exceeding 100 percent, all achieved by trading trends.

Kollar’s research has shown that the financial markets are in tradable trends approximately 80 percent of the time. FibTimer strategies define trends and trade them in both advancing and declining markets. Caring nothing about what newscasters say or what the latest economic indicator predicts, trends are where the profits are, and that is where FibTimer is.

Kollar is editor and chief analyst at FibTimer.com (http://www.fibtimer.com) which offers market timing strategies for S&P and Nasdaq index fund traders, as well as bond, gold, small cap, sector, ETF and stock trading strategies.

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