- Analytical Commentary -

March 4, 2010 (FinancialWire) (By Frank Kollar) — Shares of the SPDR Gold Shares (NYSE: GLD) have been rallying this past week but have now reached levels where we can expect sellers to enter the market.

When Gold Shares rallied back in early January, the $112 level stopped the rally and Gold Shares continued lower for a month.

Now Gold Shares are back at this same resistance level, closing Wednesday, March 3 at $111.63 a share. The $112 level is also the 50% retracement of the December to January sell off, so short sellers will be watching for any sign of weakness to enter the market and help push prices lower.

Of course maybe the second time will be the charm. Gold Shares will then immediately be faced with another strong resistance level, the Fib 61.8% retracement for the December to January decline at $114.10.

So $114.10 is the number to watch. A decisive close above this level would point to a new run to the December $120 highs. A failure at $114.10 would likely lead to a period of lower lows or at least sideways trading.

Frank Kollar has been timing the financial markets since 1982, with online service since 1996. He is a dedicated trend timer and his strategies exited the markets before the crash in 1987 as well as the bear market in 2000 through 2002. During the 2000-2002 bear market, his bearish positions resulted in gains exceeding 100 percent. For 2008-2009, his strategy resulted in a 81.9% gain, all achieved by trading trends.

Kollar’s research has shown that the financial markets are in tradable trends approximately 80 percent of the time. FibTimer strategies define trends and trade them in both advancing and declining markets. Caring nothing about what newscasters say or what the latest economic indicator predicts, trends are where the profits are, and that is where FibTimer is.

Kollar is editor and chief analyst at FibTimer.com (http://www.fibtimer.com) which offers market timing strategies for S&P and Nasdaq index fund traders, as well as bond, gold, small cap, sector, ETF and stock trading strategies.

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