- Market Analysis -

February 23, 2010 (FinancialWire) (By Frank Kollar) — Shares of Dell Inc (NASDAQ: DELL) have been declining since September 2009. During that time frame they have had four rallies with each rally high being lower than the previous one.

This sets up a declining trend resistance line (a line drawn through the highs) and unless Dell can break above it, the odds favor lower lows ahead.

Dell has also made two important lows over the past three months. A break of either of these lows would result in considerably lower prices.

On December 9, shares of Dell reached a low of $12.74 in intra-day trading. On January 29, shares of Dell again declined to this level, reaching $12.75 intra-day. This makes a very definitive support level and one that has not been broken since back in July, 2009.

Should Dell close below $12.74 in coming weeks, we would expect substantial selling to take shares much lower, to at least $12.44 and likely to the $11.35 level.

Dell needs to close above $14.50 a share to renew its prior uptrend, something that appears unlikely in the current economic environment.

Frank Kollar has been timing the financial markets since 1982, with online service since 1996. He is a dedicated trend timer and his strategies exited the markets before the crash in 1987 as well as the bear market in 2000 through 2002. During the 2000-2002 bear market, his bearish positions resulted in gains exceeding 100 percent. For 2008-2009, his strategy resulted in a 81.9% gain, all achieved by trading trends.

Kollar’s research has shown that the financial markets are in tradable trends approximately 80 percent of the time. FibTimer strategies define trends and trade them in both advancing and declining markets. Caring nothing about what newscasters say or what the latest economic indicator predicts, trends are where the profits are, and that is where FibTimer is.

Kollar is editor and chief analyst at FibTimer.com (http://www.fibtimer.com) which offers market timing strategies for S&P and Nasdaq index fund traders, as well as bond, gold, small cap, sector, ETF and stock trading strategies.

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