- Technical Commentary -

December 16, 2009 (FinancialWire) (By Frank Kollar) — Shares of the ETF Powershares QQQ Trust (NASDAQ: QQQQ) rallied to the $44.60 level in mid-November. After a month, they have been unable to surpass these highs even after several attempts.

The bullish side is that there have been two minor corrections during this time-frame and the second correction ended at a higher low. This creates a wedge shape pattern that likely has predictive results when broken.

A lower low than the rising trend support line created by drawing a line through the November 27 and December 9 lows would forecast lower lows for the next several days to weeks.

A decisive close above $44.60, the horizontal resistance line, would be a breakout for the Nasdaq 100 Q’s and forecast a run to the next resistance level which is all the way up at $48.64, the 78.6% retracement level for the entire 2008-2009 bear market decline.

There is minor resistance at $45.78 which should be surpassed if the Nasdaq 100 Q’s can break out. Two weeks ago we looked at this level as a possible critical resistance but as time goes by and the Nasdaq 100 Q’s hold near their highs, we see a breakout as likely to blow past this number and continue higher.

The Fibtimer.com (http://www.fibtimer.com) Stock Timing Strategy holds a position in the Powershares QQQ Trust.

Frank Kollar has been timing the financial markets since 1982, with online service since 1996. He is a dedicated trend timer and his strategies exited the markets before the crash in 1987 as well as the bear market in 2000 through 2002. During the 2000-2002 bear market, his bearish positions resulted in gains exceeding 100 percent, all achieved by trading trends.

Kollar’s research has shown that the financial markets are in tradable trends approximately 80 percent of the time. FibTimer strategies define trends and trade them in both advancing and declining markets. Caring nothing about what newscasters say or what the latest economic indicator predicts, trends are where the profits are, and that is where FibTimer is.

Kollar is editor and chief analyst at FibTimer.com (http://www.fibtimer.com) which offers market timing strategies for S&P and Nasdaq index fund traders, as well as bond, gold, small cap, sector, ETF and stock trading strategies.

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