- Technical Analysis -

October 16, 2009 (FinancialWire) (By Frank Kollar) — Both the S&P 500 Index (SPX), and its tracking ETF the S&P Deposit Receipts (NYSE: SPY) have advanced to new 2009 and new rally highs.

After correcting to their 50-day moving average two weeks ago, both the SPX and SPY reversed hard on Oct 2 and have been rallying since. Several days have seen gaps at the open as the advance has taken on the trappings of a momentum rally.

For the SPY, the widely traded ETF that follows the S&P 500 Index, the critical 50% retracement for the entire bear market decline is only 2.5% higher, at SPY 112.31.

Typically, momentum rallies have bad endings, but until they do, no one knows just how high they will go.

There are many technicians calling for a reversal and correction at that 50% level. That could certainly be the case but until it happens, the trend remains up. The SPY could blow right through the 50% retracement level.

If we do move lower, initial strong support should be found around SPX 848 which is the 50-day moving average for this big cap index (for the SPY the 50-day moving is at about $85.00).

The http://www.fibtimer.com ETF Strategy has a position in the S&P 500 SPYDRs.

[Go to http://www.financialwire.net/?s=frank+kollar to see more commentaries by Frank Kollar.]

FirstAlert(tm) “Money Index” is an indicator of the depth of market direction or indirection. While not always including the same stocks, the NYSE/NASDAQ/AMEX 25 Most Actives and NYSE/NASDAQ/AMEX greatest Percentage Losers and Percentage Winners (weighted against pure monetary loss/gain) indicate the direction in which the mass of money is flowing, as well as the general focus of the market. Of the Most Actives, last session’s trading showed 12 advancers versus 13 decliners. Volume leaders were led by Citigroup Inc. (NYSE: C) trading 102,451,300 shares closing at $4.75 (down 5.0%), Pfizer Inc. (NYSE: PFE) trading 36,872,600 shares closing at $17.66 (up 1.7%) and the SPDR Trust ETF (NYSE: SPY) trading 34,025,458 shares closing at $109.71 (up 0.4%). Of last session’s Greatest Percentage Losers, stocks taking the greatest monetary losses were led by Barclays PLC (NYSE: BCS) trading on volume of 24,500 shares (losing $9.507 billion), Nokia Corp. (NYSE: NOK) trading on volume of 11,018,800 shares (losing $6.723 billion) and Sterlite Industries India Ltd. (NYSE: SLT) trading on volume of 2,614,700 shares (losing $1.381 billion). Of last session’s Greatest Percentage Winners, stocks making the greatest monetary gains were led by Acorda Therapeutics, Inc. (NASDAQ: ACOR) trading on volume of 4,303,825 shares (gaining $301.1 million), Hudson Highland Group Inc. (NASDAQ: HHGP) trading on volume of 34,752 shares (gaining $18.7 million) and Rubio’s Restaurants Inc. (NASDAQ: RUBO) trading on volume of 102,845 shares (gaining $17.3 million). The complete chart for today’s FirstAlert(tm) Money Index Synopsis is posted at investrend.com (http://www.investrend.com/nyse-amex-nasdaq-101509). Go to http://www.financialwire.net/?s=%22%27Money+Index%27+Synopsis for all the most recent FirstAlert(tm) “Money Index” Synopses.

The FirstAlert(tm) Economics Calendar lists Treasury Int’l Capital Flows for August (8:30 a.m.), Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization for Sep (9:15 a.m.), U. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for October (9:55 a.m.).

The FirstAlert(tm) Events Calendar showcases no events today.

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Today in History: Portland, Maine, was burned by the British in 1775. George Washington captured Yorktown, Virginia, in 1781. Marie Antoinette, wife of Louis XVI was guillotined in 1793 at the height of the French Revolution. Sir William Rowan Hamilton came up with the idea of quaternions, a non-commutative extension of complex numbers, in 1843. Cardiff Giant, one of the most famous American hoaxes, was discovered in 1869. The Walt Disney Company was founded in 1923 by Walt Disney and his brother, Roy Disney. The “miracle” New York Mets won the World Series in 1969.

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