- Commentary -

October 13, 2009 (FinancialWire) (By Philip Holmes) — Stocks finished mixed on Monday as investors contemplated upcoming earnings reports. Recovery hopes were buoyed somewhat early on, as consumer electronics giant Royal Philips Electronics (NYSE: PHG) posted a Q3 profit and toolmaker Black & Decker (NYSE: BDK) hinted that its upcoming showing might beat expectations.

The Dow Jones industrial average closed at 9,885.80, up 20.86 points, while the broad Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index gained 4.70 points. The Nasdaq composite index lost 0.14 points on the trading day, closing at 2,139.14.

The Philips news got the day off to a bright start but upcoming reports due from IBM, Google, Citigroup and Bank of America - among others - have investors feeling cautiously optimistic at best.

A weakening dollar boosted commodities, but also seemed to bolster the inflation hawks at the Fed, whose rift with their money pumping counterparts was brought to light over the weekend - a phenomenon that’s as rare as a giant squid in the surf.

St. Louis Fed president James B. Bullard sounded the alarm, essentially saying that the Open Market Committee was playing chicken with a big, sudden rise in inflation by continuing its massive and unprecedented liquidity pumping.

But the, there wasn’t much of a real estate bubble in St. Louis, right? What do economists think?

CNNMoney’s Chris Isidore covered the polling, in an article titled, “Recession may be over, but recovery is painful.” That seems to be what around 80% of economists may think, according to a survey by the National Association for Business Economics.

Isidore reports that, while most believe the recession is over, they “don’t expect meaningful improvement in jobs, credit or housing for months to come.”

Unemployment “is forecast to hit 10% during the last three months of this year, and stay there through the first quarter of 2010. By the end of next year, it’s only expected to fall back down to 9.5%,” according to Isidore’s summary of the survey.

A third of the polled economists are anything but bullish on real estate, either, believing that “home prices won’t bottom out until early 2010 or later.” A quarter of them believe the low will come in the fourth quarter, says Isidore.

Keep an eye on earnings, but plant cabbages?

[Go to http://www.financialwire.net/?s=philip+holmes to see more commentaries by Philip Holmes.]

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