- Commentary -

August 25, 2009 (FinancialWire) (By Philip Holmes) — Stocks ended mixed on Monday as investors weighed cautiously optimistic economic news against the recent run-up in equities and decided to punt for now. NYU’s Nouriel Roubini is now hinting at a double-dip recession. So, it seems, is Mannatech (NASDAQ: MTEX), since the multi-level marketer has its dividend.

A rise in crude prices favored energy giants such as Exxon Mobil (NYSE: XOM) and Chevron (NYSE: CVX), but other sectors languished.

The Dow Jones industrial average gained 3.32 points on the trading day, to close at 9,509.28. The Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index lost 0.56 points to finish at 1,025.57. The Nasdaq composite index ended the day down by 2.92 points, at 2,017.98.

Investors are waiting for a sign that things are truly recovering in the U.S. economy, and they’re hoping that Tuesday’s S&P-Case/Shiller home price numbers might be that sign.

But BusinessWeek’s Ben Steverman points out that housing faces a long road to recovery nonetheless. House sellers are still having to lower asking prices, pulling down median prices in markets that were on fire just a few years before. A negative wealth effect that, considering how many Americans derive most of their net worth from house equity, bodes ill for any return to robust levels of consumer confidence.

As Steverman puts it, “The median existing-home price in July was $178,400, 15.1% below a year ago.” Will Case-Shiller save the day? Steverman reports that, “Even if prices improve modestly, it may be difficult to stop the slide of home prices entirely for several more months, economists say.”

He cites other trends that are working against the housing market, including job-loss levels that are slowing but haven’t stopped.

Just last week NYU economist Nouriel Roubini, the Cassandra of 2006, was making headlines for sounding a seemingly sunny note on the economy. In a piece for the Financial Times, Roubini says that the likelihood of a double-dip recession is increasing, but that the global economy will bottom in the second half of 2009.

Further uptown in New York, Paul Krugman summed the situation up, calling the state of the economy, “purgatory.” “We’re actually in a situation almost for sure GDP is growing; almost for sure the business cycle leading committee will eventually decide the recession ended this summer. But almost surely also we’re still losing jobs.”

The FirstAlert(tm) Economics Calendar lists Weekly Chain Store Sales (8:55 a.m.), S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index for June (9 a.m.), Consumer Confidence Index for August (10 a.m.), Treasury auctions 2-year notes (1 p.m.).

The FirstAlert(tm) Events Calendar showcases ASML, ATHR, INTC at Piper Jaffray Chicago Semiconductor Summit; ATRC, EVVV, VAR, XRAY at Barrington Research Healthcare Conference; CSCO Back to the Core of Business — Service Provider Networks; PDE at Jefferies Conference; SYMC, ADSK, CAH, NTAP at SourceMedia Conferences Americas Summit 2009; TQNT, MENT FEIC, RSYS at TechAmerica Silicon Forest Technology and Financial Forum.

FirstAlert(tm) Website of the Day: http://www.museumofhoaxes.com/moonhoax.html

Quote of the Day: “To achieve great things, two things are needed; a plan, and not quite enough time.” Leonard Bernstein

Today is: Kiss and Make Up Day, Uruguayan Independence Day.

Happy Birthday: Allan Pinkerton, Walt Kelly, Leonard Bernstein, Van Johnson, Mel Ferrer, Monty Hall, Althea Gibson, Sir Sean Connery, Regis Philbin, Rollie Fingers, Elvis Costello, Tim Burton.

Today in History: Galileo Galilei demonstrated his first telescope to Venetian lawmakers in 1609. Yellow Cab was founded in 1910. Voyager 2 spacecraft flew by Neptune in 1989, the last major planet it could visit before leaving the Solar System.

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