- Technical Commentary -

August 20, 2009 (FinancialWire) — Dr. Joe Duarte (http://www.joe-duarte.com) recently noted: Despite the positive tone to the market on 8-19, the Powershares Nasdaq 100 ETF (NASDAQ: QQQQ) failed to rise above 40.

Duarte added: The Qs hit the skids on Tuesday (8-18) at 39.98, closing at 39.03. There are several important points to consider here.

First, the 40 area seems to have a lot of sellers above it. The ETF hit the area intraday seven times since July 30, and could never deliver a convincing close above it.

The reversal at 39.98 is thus a sign that the sellers were well prepared as the 40 area was approached. Volume rose on down days, both Friday and Monday on the Qs. This is another sign of people looking to get out in an aggressive fashion.

So what’s left? There is now support at 37.64 to 38.25 or so. A break below that could take the Qs to a test of the 36 area.

Duarte’s conclusion: If the Qs fall to 36, that would qualify for a 10% correction from the recent highs. At that point we would likely see the market make a longer-term decision about what’s next. A lot could happen from now until then. A nice move above 40 would signal that the sellers have been vanquished.

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Duarte partners with the Investors Resource Center at Investrend Information (http://www.investrendinformation.com).

Duarte’s IntelligentForecasts.com (http://www.intelligentforecasts.com) provides free news coverage and analysis, and his daily articles and news summaries offer recommendations and analysis for ETFs, and individual stocks in the technology, health and biotechnology, and energy sectors. Duarte has combined expertise in health care, energy, and the effects of politics and global intelligence on the financial markets offer a unique blend of insight and information to thousands of active investors and political and intelligence aficionados around the world on a daily basis.

He is the author of: Futures And Options For Dummies, Successful Energy Sector Investing, Successful Biotech Investing and co-author of After-Hours Trading Made Easy. In early 2001, in Successful Energy Sector Investing, he correctly predicted that Venezuela’s political problems could lead to an energy crisis in the United States. He has also appeared as a weekly guest on Market Mavens Radio and has logged appearances on KNX radio in Los Angeles, Financial Sense.com radio, and Wall Street Radio.

One of CNBC’s original Market Mavens, Dr. Duarte has been writing about the financial markets since 1990. His articles and commentary have been featured on CBS Marketwatch, Barron’s, Smart Money, Medical Economics, and in Technical Analysis of Stocks and Commodities magazines. In 2003, Doctor Duarte received second place, in the professional section, of the Medical Economics Investment Challenge with a 12-month return of 42%.

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