July 1, 2009 (FinancialWire) (By Dr. Joe Duarte) — What do bellwethers, Manpower Inc. (NYSE: MAN), Monster Worldwide (NYSE: MWW) and Administaff (NYSE: ASF) foreshadow about employment?

The usual estimate frenzy is under way, before this Thursday’s release of last month’s non-farm payroll data, better known as “the employment report.” Wall Street is betting on a similar report to last month’s surprisingly benign tally, where only 345,000 jobs were lost. The problem we have with those estimates is that the stock market is not agreeing with it.

As usual, we look at the market for answers. Sometimes it does a good job, and sometimes it doesn’t. But then that’s the same tale for the economists and their estimates.

Last month, our three bellwethers predicted a bad employment report. Instead we got a good one. This month, the three stocks are moving sideways, suggesting that the market isn’t really sure what to expect.

The economists are looking for more of what happened last month, when most of them missed it by a long shot, just as the market did. The difference this time is that the market is admitting its mistake.

That sets the market up for several scenarios. One is that last month’s data is revised and the numbers look worse. The other is that the data is revised and the numbers look better. That means we may have to look at this month’s data with last month’s data and do some kind of averaging.

Of course, the data could just be better or worse than expected on its own, leading to its own market response. By the same token, it could just be as expected. In other words, no one really knows what’s coming on Thursday, which is why Administaff, Manpower, and Monster Worldwide are all moving sideways, waiting to see what happens.

That leaves investors with only one course of action. Be ready for anything. And that means being cautious. Keep positions small. Pay attention to sell stops. And look at all positions individually.

The uncertainty about the employment report is across the board. Manpower Inc., which we use as Wall Street’s bellwether for upper management employment expectations, is flat. Administaff, our small business barometer, topped out in late April, failing to keep up with the S&P 500. This is particularly troubling, as small business is the nation’s largest job-creating segment. Administaff makes money when small companies use its payroll and human resources management services.

Monster Worldwide gives us a glimpse into the middle of the employment curve, technical and middle management jobs. This is the worst looking stock of the three, finding itself in a slight downward sloping trend. Not a good sign.

Conclusion: The employment report will be released on Thursday. Until then, the market is likely to have an upward bias, given the pre-holiday and the new month tendency of the market to move higher.

We would expect the market to start slowing down on Wednesday with volume shrinking, as traders wait for the report.

By now, Wall Street is starting to get into summer mode too, which means that trading floors tend to thin out earlier in the day and earlier in the week, and that low volume as a daily occurrence is close at hand.

The Investrend Economics Calendar lists ADP Employment Report for June (8:15 a.m.), Construction Spending for May (10 a.m.), ISM Index for May (10 a.m.), Pending Home Sales for May (10 a.m.), EIA Petroleum Inventories (10:30 a.m.), Auto Sales for June.

The Investrend Events Calendar showcases PIR Annual Shareholders Meeting.

The Investrend Money Index is an indicator of the depth of market direction or indirection. While not always including the same stocks, the NYSE/NASDAQ 50 Most Actives indicate the direction in which the mass of money is flowing. Last session’s trading showed 18 advancers versus 32 decliners. Advancers were led by Novavax, Inc. (NASDAQ: NVAX) up 31.20%, Geron Corporation (NASDAQ: GERN) up 14.65%. Decliners followed Amer Intl Group Inc (NYSE: AIG) down 12.78%, Emulex Corp (NYSE: ELX) down 10.11%.

Investrend Website of the Day: http://skepdic.com/roswell.html

Quote of the Day: “When vultures watching your civilization begin dropping dead, it is time to pause and wonder.” David Brower

Today is: Canada Day.

Happy Birthday: George Sand, Charles Laughton, Estée Lauder, David Brower, Willie Dixon, Olivia de Havilland, Farley Granger, Leslie Caron, Jamie Farr, Karen Black, Twyla Tharp, Geneviève Bujold, Deborah Harry, Dan Aykroyd, Alan Ruck, Diana, Princess of Wales, Pamela Anderson, Liv Tyler.

Today in History: The Battle of Gettysburg began in 1863. The United States Department of Justice formally came into existence in 1870. Prince Edward Island joined the Canadian Confederation in 1873. World’s first international telephone call took place in 1881 between St. Stephen, New Brunswick, Canada, and Calais, Maine, United States. Flooding of the St. Lawrence Seaway began in 1958. Ghana became a republic in 1960. Independence of Rwanda and Burundi became independent in 1962. ZIP Codes were introduced for United States mail in 1963.

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