June 30, 2009 (FinancialWire) (By Frank Kollar) — Shares of ISHARES Lehman 20Yr (NYSE: TLT) have been rising over the past two weeks, after a decline that lasted almost seven months and loped some 28% off share prices.

The question is: are the declines over and are higher prices ahead?

Though the advance seems solid, we do question the lows reached back on June 10. Those lows did not reverse at support, but instead broke well below support before turning higher. Typically, when support is broken, the declines have not ended.

The advance appears to have more than acceptable risk in it and if a bullish position is taken, we would recommend a close trailing stop. There could still be more downside ahead.

The Fibtimer.com (http://www.fibtimer.com) ETF Timing Strategy holds a position in TLT.

Frank Kollar has been timing the financial markets since 1982, with online service since 1996. He is a dedicated trend timer and his strategies exited the markets before the crash in 1987 as well as the bear market in 2000 through 2002. During the 2000-2002 bear market, his bearish positions resulted in gains exceeding 100 percent, all achieved by trading trends.

Kollar’s research has shown that the financial markets are in tradable trends approximately 80 percent of the time. FibTimer strategies define trends and trade them in both advancing and declining markets. Caring nothing about what newscasters say or what the latest economic indicator predicts, trends are where the profits are, and that is where FibTimer is.

Kollar is editor and chief analyst at FibTimer.com (http://www.fibtimer.com) which offers market timing strategies for S&P and Nasdaq index fund traders, as well as bond, gold, small cap, sector, ETF and stock trading strategies.

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