June 2, 2009 (FinancialWire) — Dr. Joe Duarte (http://www.joe-duarte.com) recently noted: The Semiconductors HOLDRS Trust (NYSE: SMH) is one good trading day away from a breakout.

Duarte added: Chip sales, which remain significantly subdued, showed some improvement in April, at least on a month to month basis, rising 6%. Year over year sales remained dismal, showing a 25% decrease. Yet, Wall Street seems to be in the glass is half full mode this week, which means that we are likely to see stocks move higher over the next few days.

To be sure, reality will set in by Friday, when payroll data will most likely show that job losses, although perhaps slowing, will still be significant.

Still, cell phone demand remains steady with Apple and RIMM leading the way. And PC sales, although expected to continue to slide, seem to be falling at a slower pace.

Signs of improvement in U.S. GDP and in Chinese exports are also giving traders an excuse to go long, as is the persistent call for the end of the world from a slew of prominent bears.

Duarte’s conclusion: All in all, the very oversold, on a long term basis, chip sector seems to have an excuse to rally. The key to success with this trade is not to get carried away with it. Wait for the breakout, buy your stake, and ride out the storm. As always, pay special attention to your sell stops.

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Duarte partners with the Investors Resource Center at Investrend Information (http://www.investrendinformation.com).

Duarte’s IntelligentForecasts.com (http://www.intelligentforecasts.com) provides free news coverage and analysis, and his daily articles and news summaries offer recommendations and analysis for ETFs, and individual stocks in the technology, health and biotechnology, and energy sectors. Duarte has combined expertise in health care, energy, and the effects of politics and global intelligence on the financial markets offer a unique blend of insight and information to thousands of active investors and political and intelligence aficionados around the world on a daily basis.

He is the author of: Futures And Options For Dummies, Successful Energy Sector Investing, Successful Biotech Investing and co-author of After-Hours Trading Made Easy. In early 2001, in Successful Energy Sector Investing, he correctly predicted that Venezuela’s political problems could lead to an energy crisis in the United States. He has also appeared as a weekly guest on Market Mavens Radio and has logged appearances on KNX radio in Los Angeles, Financial Sense.com radio, and Wall Street Radio.

One of CNBC’s original Market Mavens, Dr. Duarte has been writing about the financial markets since 1990. His articles and commentary have been featured on CBS Marketwatch, Barron’s, Smart Money, Medical Economics, and in Technical Analysis of Stocks and Commodities magazines. In 2003, Doctor Duarte received second place, in the professional section, of the Medical Economics Investment Challenge with a 12-month return of 42%.

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