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FirstAlert[tm] 5/21: Crude Awakening

fa_logo_sq_225px-w_bwMay 21, 2009 (FinancialWire) (By Philip Holmes) — Stocks closed lower on Wednesday despite gains by banks, including Bank of America (NYSE: BAC), and a rising tide of futures prices for crude oil. Plus, what’s the real deal with housing?

The Dow Jones industrial average lost 52.81 points on the trading session, to close at 8,422.04, while the S&P 500 index dropped 4.66 points to end at 903.47. The Nasdaq composite index lost 6.70 points, for a 1,727.84 finish.

Bank of America joined a growing list of banks that have successfully tapped into renewed investor interest in financial stocks. The megabank raised $13.5 billion from a public offering of its common shares.

The Energy Department reported a 2.1 million barrel drop in crude-oil inventory, sending crude oil futures to levels not seen since last fall. NYMEX crude oil futures for July reached nearly $62 per barrel.

The minutes of last month’s meeting of the Fed’s Open Market Committee were released on Wednesday, and BusinessWeek reports that they “weren’t quite as optimistic last month as some subsequent Fedspeak might have suggested.”

Fedsters are now looking for GDP growth in the range of -2% to -1.3% for 2009, down from -1.3% to -0.5% forecast previously. For 2010, the Fed is forecasting growth of 2% to 3%, versus 2.5% to 3.3% previously.

Are we seeing little green shoots in the housing sector, or not? BusinessWeek’s Ben Steverman took on that question after data released on May 19 showed U.S. housing starts at a record low, down by 12.8% in April. At an annual pace of 458,000, and down 79.8% from their January 2006 peak, housing starts are not happening in line with the, “we’re in recovery!” hype now making the rounds.

Blame the apartment complex down the street with all the “vacancy” signs and its sobering effect on developers and investors. A sharp drop in multifamily construction starts mars what might actually be promising news: Single-family starts are up 2.8%.

But hold off on popping that cork. Government tax credits for first-time buyers and a recovering credit market may yet stimulate recovery, but there is a lot of unsold inventory to work through before homebuilders are back in the pink.

The Investrend Earnings Calendar features Barnes & Noble (NYSE: BKS), expected at $-0.15 versus $0.05 a year ago; Foot Locker (NYSE: FL), expected at $0.12 versus $0.14 a year ago; Gamestop (NYSE: GME), expected at $0.42 versus $0.38 a year ago; Hormel Foods (NYSE: HRL), expected at $0.50 versus $0.56 a year ago.

The Investrend Economics Calendar lists Weekly Initial Jobless Claims (8:30 a.m.), Philadelphia Fed Index for May (10 a.m.), Leading Indicators Index for April (10 a.m.), Treasury announces 2, 5, & 7-year note auctions (11 a.m.).

The Investrend Events Calendar showcases AB, IBKR, AMG at Fox-Pitt, Kelton Inc. Global Securities Industry Conference; ADY, SIMO, CHDX at Oppenheimer China Dragon Call Conference; BA 2009 Annual Investor Conference; BLK Shareholders Meeting; BWLD Shareholders Meeting; COP, APC, CXO at UBS Oil & Gas Conference; GE at Goldman Sachs Fourth Annual Alternative Energy Conference; KeyCorp Shareholders Meeting; STLD Annual Metting of Shareholders; URS, CR, RRR, RBC at Barrington Research Industrial Conference; YUM Shareholders Meeting.

The Investrend Money Index is an indicator of the depth of market direction or indirection. While not always including the same stocks, the NYSE/NASDAQ 50 Most Actives indicate the direction in which the mass of money is flowing. Last session’s trading showed 18 advancers versus 32 decliners. Advancers were led by Ja Solar Holdings, Co., Ltd. (NASDAQ: JASO) up 24.45%, Gen Motors (NYSE: GM) up 14.17%, Level 3 Communications, Inc. (NASDAQ: LVLT) up 14.15%, Financial Bear 3x (NYSE: FAZ) up 6.71%. Decliners followed Financial Bull 3x (NYSE: FAS) down 6.69%, Regions Financial Cp (NYSE: RF) down 6.68%.

Vote in the Investrend Poll Question of the Day at Investrend Information (http://www.investrendinformation.com).

Investrend Website of the Day: http://wordsmith.org/anagram/index.html

Quote of the Day: “Sure, 90% of science fiction is crud. That’s because 90% of everything is crud.” Theodore Sturgeon

Today is: American Red Cross Founder’s Day.

Happy Birthday: Plato, Albrecht Dürer, Alexander Pope, Henri Rousseau, Glenn Curtiss, Sam Jaffe, Raymond Burr, Dennis Day, Andrei Sakharov, Mr. T (Laurence Tureaud).

Today in History: The island of Saint Helena was discovered in 1502 by the Portuguese navigator João da Nova. The American Red Cross was established by Clara Barton in 1881. The Manchester Ship Canal in England was opened in 1894 by Queen Victoria, who knighted its designer, Sir Edward Leader Williams. Charles Lindbergh touched down at Le Bourget Field in Paris in 1927, completing the world’s first solo nonstop flight across the Atlantic Ocean. Oskaloosa, Iowa, became in 1934 the first municipality in the United States to fingerprint each of its citizens. United States screen legend Humphrey Bogart married actress Lauren Bacall in 1945. In the Pacific Ocean, Bikini Atoll was nearly obliterated by the first airborne explosion of a hydrogen bomb in 1956.

[FirstAlertTM was created by Gayle Essary, founder of Investrend Communications, Inc., parent of Investrend Information (http://www.investrendinformation.com). The opinions expressed in FirstAlertTM do not necessarily reflect the opinions of Investrend.]

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